According to independent news site Haber3, nine polls published in July reveal the main opposition of CHP-IYIP moving ahead of President Erdogan’s AKP MHP alliance. In three August polls, AKP was shown to be losing further favor with the electorate. Center-right IYIP chaired by Mrs Meral Aksener is the rising star of the opposition, which according to August ORC poll garners 22% support. Erdogan ally MHP is at 7%, and in danger of disqualifying from the next parliament. The pro-Kurdish Rights Party, HDP is scoring 9.8% in July polls, comfortably above the 7% national qualification hurdle.
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Below are the average of nine polls published in July—in percentages
AKP: 31,3
CHP: 26,8
İYİP: 14,3
HDP: 9,8
MHP: 7
Zafer Party anti-immigrant: 2,8
DEVA Party (of Ali Babacan: 2,3
BTP: 1,8
GELECEK Party (of Ahmet Davutoglu): 1,4
Yeniden Refah Party–Islamist: 1,4
Saadet Partisi-Islamist: 1
The main opposition alliance of CHP-IYIP outmatch governing AKP-MHP by 41.1% vs 38.3%. If SAADET, DEVA and Gelecek choose to run under the same ticket with CHP-IYIP, the opposition gains and eight point advantage, potentially securing a simple majority (301 seats) in the 600 seat Grand Assembly. HDP is certain to vote in many issues with opposition, such as the budget, human rights legislation and nationalization of toll roads and tunnels, granting the opposition a huge margin against AKP-MHP.
In August, Yoneylem, ORC (Partially) and Avrasya Research revealed their poll results this far. In all three, main opposition party CHP is reported as a head or neck to neck with governing AKP.
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