Prior to the historical Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meeting, Central Bank (CBRT) Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan called the managers of the research departments of international investment banks. According to the information obtained from sources close to the subject, the request came from the CBRT. During the interviews, Erkan asked foreigners what they thought in general.
According to the news of Şebnem Turhan from the Economim news site, although MPC members are members who have signed on to interest rate cuts before, the fact that the new Chairman Hafize Gaye Erkan and the Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek are on duty has led the entire market to expect an increase in the policy rate.
Expectations are in a wide range to increase the policy rate, which is currently at 8.5 percent, to 15-40 percent. In particular, the expectations about the new governor from international investment banks and the first meeting of the Central Bank MPC are quite high.
According to the information received from sources close to the subject; Governor Erkan held phone calls with the managers of the research units of international investment banks. It was learned that Erkan exchanged views with international investment bank executives on Turkish markets and received their evaluations with their approaches.
According to the information obtained from sources close to international foreign institutions, representatives stated that the interest rate decision is important and pointed out that a strong interest rate increase would mean a strong signal to markets regarding the earnestness of combating inflation.
It was learned that concerns about a Turkish balance of payments crisis came to the fore in the meetings, in which the managers of foreign institutions drew attention to the elimination of capital control restrictions, easing rules forbidding swaps, measures to enhance inflows of hot money for a while, and announcing a clear exit plan from the currency-protected deposits.
In the meantime, it was learned that an investor group will come to Turkey to meet with the Minister of Treasury and Finance Şimşek.
The Central Bank’s MPC meeting is followed not only in the country but also abroad. Policy rate estimations of foreign institutions come one after another. Morgan Stanley expects the policy rate to rise to 20 percent, while Bank of America expects it to raise it to 25 percent. Deutsche Bank shared its forecast of 25 percent and Goldman Sachs 40 percent.
Source: Merkez Bankası Başkanı, yabancı yatırım bankalarıyla görüştü
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