“Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s fiery statements condemning Israel may seem bold, but Turkey’s trade relations with Israel tell a different story. In the end, Erdoğan’s bluster is a cynical attempt to shore up eroding support among his base”, argues Aidan Samardone at the Jacobin.
Amid the ongoing slaughter in Gaza, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stands out among world leaders for his bold remarks, including labeling Israel a terrorist state and demanding that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu be tried as a war criminal. For Palestinians, a Turkish shift away from Israel would be a significant development, considering Turkey’s stature as one of the largest countries in the Middle East.
Erdoğan is the quintessential demagogue — he issues challenging statements to the established order while maintaining the status quo. Erdoğan’s denouncements of Israel tend to coincide with periods of heightened violence. But once public outrage declines, it’s back to business as usual.
Although formal military cooperation ended in 2008, Turkey continued to benefit from Israeli military exports. In 2020, Turkish ally Azerbaijan began military operations to ethnically cleanse the Armenian-majority region of Artsakh. While Erdoğan blamed Israel for destabilizing the Middle East, Turkey let Israel use its airspace to deliver weapons for the slaughter of Armenians.
In 2022, amnesia seemed to take hold. Erdoğan appeared to have forgotten his past statements branding Zionism as a crime against humanity and advocating for Israel to be tried in the International Criminal Court. The leaders of Israel and Turkey met in September 2022 for the first time in fourteen years, marking a resumption of defense cooperation, including the sharing of intelligence. The exact reasons for this rapprochement are up for debate, but a common interest in exploiting oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean might have been a driving force. For Erdoğan, it appears that financial interests take precedence over principles.
The More Things Change . . .
Erdoğan’s policy toward Israel remains unchanged. When Hamas led an attack on October 7, Erdoğan’s first response was not to caution Israel to act proportionally, but to try to expel Hamas leadership from Turkey. When opposition emerged against Israel’s siege of Gaza, Erdoğan once again condemned Israel, branding it a terrorist state and calling for an investigation into war crimes. This led to the recall of ambassadors by both Israel and Turkey.
While the ongoing crisis in Gaza has halted the rapprochement with Israel, it has not ended economic relations. Trade continues, and this time it seems Erdoğan is personally benefiting. A recent investigation accuses Erdoğan’s son, Ahmet Burak Erdoğan, of owning vessels involved in shipping to Israel. Others who are close to the AKP, such as the son of former prime minister Binali Yıldırım, also benefit from this trade.
However, contrary to media portrayals, the Turkey-Israel relationship isn’t necessarily over. “Turkey-Israel ties in tatters over Erdogan address” reads a headline from France 24. “Gaza war pushes tumultuous Israel-Turkey ties into ‘deep freezer’” reads another headline from Al Jazeera.
But as history has shown us, Erdoğan has no interest in changing the status quo. While formal diplomatic relations have their ups and downs, trade between the countries continues to grow. Instead of being a staunch advocate for Palestine, Erdoğan has contributed to Israel’s prosperity by providing the goods necessary for Zionist occupation to continue. Just as before, when Israel’s bombardment of Gaza concludes, Turkey may resume efforts to mend relations.
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