In the race between former Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who the AKP has nominated as its Istanbul candidate for the local elections, the latest opinion polls favor İmamoğlu. In most of the surveys conducted in December, before Kurum’s name was officially announced as the candidate, İmamoğlu is seen to be ahead, while the difference between Kurum and İmamoğlu is observed to be significant.
In MetroPOLL Research’s December Istanbul survey, İmamoğlu received 48.2 percent of the votes, while Kurum received 33.9 percent. While 17.9 percent of the voters asked for their opinion said “no opinion”, 84.2 percent of İYİ Party voters and 75 percent of DEM Party voters said they would vote for İmamoğlu, 6.1 percent of İYİ Party voters and 2.7 percent of DEM Party voters said they would vote for Kurum.
However, the candidates to be nominated by the IYI Party and DEM Party and the attitude they will follow are seen as factors that can significantly affect the outcome of the election. In addition, many political scientists believe that İmamoğlu’s real rival is not Kurum but President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself.
So how will the race in Istanbul play out under these conditions? Can the establishment overtake Imamoglu? What advantages Imamoglu has to win the election.
“It will not be an equal election”
Özer Sencar, President of MetroPOLL, says that Erdoğan is having a very difficult time finding a candidate this time because the pool of “competent names” is now exhausted:
“The institution has a structure that does not engage in polemics, does not have excessive anger or expressions. With these characteristics, he doesn’t have a style that would disturb people, but he doesn’t have the characteristics of a leader. Because leaders sometimes get angry, sometimes get angry, sometimes they are very soft. Imamoğlu, on the other hand, has leader qualities. Therefore, this election will not be a choice between equals.”
For this reason, as many political scientists point out, Sencar thinks that İmamoğlu’s real rival is not the Institution but Erdoğan himself.
PanoramaTR Research Director Osman Sert also sees the fact that a politician like Erdoğan and the AKP and MHP cadres are behind him as an advantage for Kurum, and predicts that Erdoğan will fill the politically missing points.
Sert said, “Kurum is not a decision-making actor with a very strong political language compared to İmamoğlu in terms of general profile. Maybe Erdoğan did not want a decision-making and decisive actor anyway,” Sert says:
“Erdoğan does not want strong political figures other than himself, not in the party, not in the cabinet, not in the mayorships. Therefore, reducing the issue only to Murat Kurum would mean limiting the process regarding Erdoğan’s understanding of politics. Erdoğan looks at it as ‘I do the politics in the party, you do your job’. I think he chose the Istanbul candidate with this in mind.”
Ministry and Emlak Konut actions
Kurum’s policies in urbanization in the last 15 years, five years as minister and nine years as Emlak Konut, have been the focus of criticism.
Sert says that many of the vertical and high-density constructions in Istanbul were built when Kurum was the head of Emlak Konut and that these policies and construction will be scrutinized and what he can do now will be discussed based on what he did before.
In a statement he made in 2017, Erdoğan said that Istanbul, where he was also the mayor of the metropolitan municipality, was an ancient city and said, “We did not know the value of this city, we betrayed this city, we are still betraying this city, and I am responsible for this.”
Sencar pointed out that Kurum’s actions during Emlak Konut and his ministerial term will be on the agenda more from now on and may create a baggage for him, and said, “They call him an urban transformation expert, but the mayor does not need to be an urban transformation expert. Engineers do this, they decide. Therefore, he does not have a very prominent feature both politically and technically.”
During Kurum’s ministerial term, the February 6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, the biggest earthquake in Turkey’s history, and the collapse of a large number of buildings and the loss of many lives brought to the agenda the AKP governments’ policies on urbanization and zoning amnesties in the last 21 years.
What will the DEM Party and the IYI Party do?
Two other important factors that have a high potential to affect the outcome of the race in Istanbul will be whether the DEM Party and the IYI Party will field a candidate, and if so, whether it will be a high-profile name and how these parties will perform.
While the components of the People’s Alliance decided to cooperate in 30 metropolitan cities and 29 provinces, including Istanbul, the Millet Alliance disintegrated after the May 14 election defeat, and the DEM Party abandoned its policy of “making the government lose” in 2019. In the May 14 elections, the Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP), which entered the Parliament after 21 years with 1.5 million votes and five deputies, has not yet clarified whether it will support the People’s Alliance. The YRP is thought to have a vote potential of 2-3 percent in Istanbul.
The DEM Party has not yet announced a candidate, while the name of Istanbul Provincial President Buğra Kavuncu is frequently mentioned for the İYİ Party.
Pointing out that Imamoğlu will emerge without the political support of Kurum, Sert reminds that “CHP has a contribution, but there is a weak structure in the opposition as an alliance”.
Sert also draws attention to the importance of the result in Istanbul beyond the local elections, both for Turkey as a whole and for İmamoğlu’s political career:
“The AK Party in Konya, the CHP in Izmir or the DEM Party in Diyarbakir will decide on the morning of April 1 whether they won the elections or not based on the Istanbul result.”
What does the math in 2019 election results show?
In the March 31, 2019 election, Imamoğlu received 48.79 percent of the vote while Binali Yıldırım received 48.63 percent. The difference was only 13,729.
In the renewed election on June 23, Imamoğlu received 54.21 percent of the votes and Binali Yıldırım 44.99 percent, while the difference increased to 777 thousand.
Sencar states that within the 54 points Imamoğlu received, there are approximately 12 percent of the votes coming from the HDP and 6-7 percent from the İYİ Party, and when these two rates are added together, it is not known how much of a vote of around 18 percent with a rough calculation will vote for Imamoğlu again.
Stating that whether the DEM Party will nominate a candidate and whether this name will have a strong profile will be important for Kurdish voters with high party loyalty, Sencar expects a large part of İYİ Party voters to vote for İmamoğlu again, but emphasizes that even a loss of 1-2 percent will be important.
Another decisive factor that Sencar draws attention to and which he says is missed by many is the AKP and MHP voters who voted for İmamoğlu in 2019. Sencar explains this factor as follows:
“6 points of those who voted for İmamoğlu came from the AKP and MHP. Some AK Party voters did not go to the polls in anger because the election was canceled, etc. Now there is no such factor. Therefore, the number of AK Party voters for İmamoğlu may not be as high as it was then.”
Although Sencar stands out as a candidate with a strong profile against the Institution alone, when all these factors come together, namely the possible attitudes of the DEM Party and İYİ Party and whether AKP-MHP voters will vote or not, he does not see the election as a guarantee for İmamoğlu.
Meanwhile, IYI Party Spokesperson Kürşad Zorlu responded to the question about Kurum’s nomination at today’s press conference by saying, “After we announce our Istanbul candidate, there will be a very good competition in our Istanbul as in Turkey.”
DW