Halk Yatirim Research commentary
According to TUIK data, total housing sales across Turkey decreased by 17.8% on an annual basis in January, dropping to 80,388 units. We observe that the decrease on a monthly basis is at the level of 42%. When we examine evolution of the decrease in January on a monthly basis since 2016, we observe that it is at similar levels to 2-23, with an average of 42.4%.
The number of houses sold for the first time decreased by 8.2% compared to the same month of the previous year, reported at 25,263 units, while second-hand house sales decreased by 21.6%, reaching 55,045 units.
While there was a 63.5% decrease in mortgaged housing sales compared to the same month of the previous year, there was an 8.7% decrease in other housing sales. Housing sales to foreigners amounted to 2,061 units in January, indicating a 50.5% decrease on an annual basis. The share of foreigners in housing sales was 2.6% in January (it was 4.3% in January 2023).
REIT impact neutral
In line with the fact that the monthly decrease in January was at levels similar to previous year averages; We evaluate the reflection of January housing data on REIT Sector shares as ‘neutral’. On the other hand, we observe that the 63.5% decline in mortgaged house sales has continued sharply for the last 5 months. We can say that the tightening in loans was effective in the decline in mortgage sales. When we take into account the monetary and fiscal policies implemented by the economic management within the framework of the fight against inflation and sustainability, together with their lagged effects, we think that the slowdown trend in the housing sector may continue.
Details of the data
House sales in Turkey decreased by 17.8 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 80 thousand 308. House sales to foreigners decreased by 50.5 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 2 thousand 61. The contraction follows the central banks efforts to rein in Turkey’s very high inflation rate as the policy rate was carried up to 45% from 8.5% back in June 2023.
In Turkey, house sales decreased by 17.8 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 80 thousand 308. House sales to foreigners decreased by 50.5 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 2 thousand 61.
The provinces with the lowest number of house sales were Ardahan with 17 houses, Hakkari with 38 houses and Bayburt with 40 houses.
Mortgaged house sales in Turkey decreased by 63.5 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 5 thousand 915. The share of mortgaged sales in total house sales was realized as 7.4 percent. One thousand 404 of the mortgaged sales in January were realized as first-hand sales.
Other house sales in Turkey decreased by 8.7 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 74 thousand 393. The share of other sales in total house sales was 92.6 percent.
The number of first-hand house sales in Turkey decreased by 8.2 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 25 thousand 263. The share of first-hand house sales in total house sales was 31.5 percent.
Second-hand house sales in Turkey decreased by 21.6 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 55 thousand 45. The share of second-hand house sales in total house sales was 68.5 percent.
Sales to foreigners decreased
House sales to foreigners decreased by 50.5 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 2 thousand 61. In January, the share of house sales to foreigners in total house sales was 2.6 percent.
Antalya ranked first in house sales to foreigners with 747 house sales. Antalya was followed by Istanbul with 710 house sales and Mersin with 211 house sales.
In January, Russian Federation citizens bought 555 houses from Turkey. Russian Federation citizens were followed by Iran with 208 houses, Ukraine with 127 houses, Iraq and Kazakhstan citizens with 99 houses.