According to researchers who have taken the pulse of Kurdish public opinion ahead of the upcoming March 31 local elections, Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor and Candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu has the potential to receive a significant number of votes from both DEM voters and conservative Kurdish and AK Party voters in the March 31 elections.
Speaking to ANKA, Vahap Coşkun, a lecturer at Dicle University, said: “Parties have separated from each other, but we cannot say that this separation is absolute at the voter level. Therefore, I think that some of the voters who voted for the IYI Party and some of the DEM voters will vote for İmamoğlu, the strong candidate of the opposition, not for their own parties in this election.”
‘NOT FOR THEIR OWN PARTY, BUT FOR THE STRONG CANDIDATE OF THE OPPOSITION’
Stating that the opposition voters may rally around İmamoğlu, Coşkun said, “The parties have separated from each other, but we cannot say that this separation is absolute at the voter level. Because voters still maintain the behavioral mode regarding the alliances in the past elections. Especially the opposition voters’ opposition to the government has not deteriorated. Therefore, I think that some of the voters who voted for the İYİ Party and some of the DEM voters will vote for İmamoğlu, the strong candidate of the opposition, not for their own parties.”
‘DEM VOTERS ARE MOTIVATED BY ANTI-INCUMBENCY’
Vahap Coşkun stated that the DEM Party’s decision not to nominate Başak Demirtaş as a candidate in Istanbul creates an advantage for CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, emphasizing that the main motivation of DEM voters is the opposition to the government, “DEM voters may vote for CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu due to not going to the polls or opposition to the AK Party. Anti-government is a serious advantage for İmamoğlu. The feeling that Istanbul should not be taken over by the AK Party and should not be ruled by the AK Party is a feeling that has taken place in a significant part of DEM voters.”
AT LEAST 40 PERCENT OF DEM VOTERS WILL SAY ‘IMAMOĞLU’
According to Roj Girasun, General Manager of Rawest Research, based on research and analysis on Kurdish voters, Ekrem İmamoğlu can get at least 40 percent of the votes from DEM voters. Girasun stated that the opposition voters desire to balance the government at the local level and argued that İmamoğlu will be the main locomotive of the opposition if he emerges victorious from these elections.
‘IF DEM PARTY GETS 8 PERCENT OF VOTES, IMAMOĞLU HAS NO CHANCE’
Girasun said, “If İmamoğlu emerges victorious from these elections despite the disorganization of the opposition, İmamoğlu will be the main locomotive of the opposition from now on. The only political meaning of these elections will be the Istanbul elections. The DEM party received 8-8.5 percent of the votes in the last elections. If he gets this vote in Istanbul, Imamoglu has no chance of winning.
Today it seems that at least 40 percent of the votes of the DEM party went to Imamoglu. Imamoğlu seems to have received a significant percentage of DEM party votes today. It is stated that DEM Party voters are more motivated to vote for İmamoğlu compared to the past elections and the 2019 elections. Voters who previously stayed away from voting despite the insistence of their parties may turn to İmamoğlu today despite the fact that their parties are out of votes. The most important issue here was the so-called Urban Consensus.
‘İMAMOĞLU MAY ALSO GET VOTES FROM AK PARTY KURDISH VOTERS’
Researcher and writer Cuma Çiçek stated that CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu has the capacity to convince the Kurdish voters of the AK Party. According to Çiçek, İmamoğlu is a figure who can appeal to AK Party voters. He is an actor who does not use a negative language on the Kurdish issue, although he may not be a solutionist. In fact, by taking a positive stance to a certain extent, there may be a potential for Kurdish voters who vote for the AK Party to turn towards İmamoğlu.
However, it is possible to say that this potential is around 20 percent to 30 percent at most. İmamoğlu has the potential to convince AKP Kurds. This is due to the fact that İmamoğlu’s profile is not a known CHP member; in other words, he is a politician who has the potential to speak to the conservative community.”