Yetkin Report:  Main opposition leader Ozel urges Erdogan to snap elections in November 2025

Turkish opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Özgür Özel stated that under current conditions, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cannot run for another term, however, if he seeks re-election, the deadline for him to “knock the CHP’s door” for a compromise would be November 2025.

 

Answering YetkinReport’s questions, Özel said, “He shouldn’t come after November 2025. We are on a path to power. We’re available until two and a half years (of presidential term) are up, after that we’re not. Two and a half years from us, two and a half years from you. This is a sign of our confidence.”

Stating his aspiration to be remembered in CHP history as the leader who brought the party back to power after his predecessor Bülent Ecevit half a century later, Özel emphasized that he doesn’t intend to “take the final penalty shot himself,” at the last moment.

 

He said that whoever is most prepared at the time will be the presidential candidate. This decision, he noted, will be made by party committees in accordance with the new bylaw, not by him alone.

 

Addressing the recent discussion about Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş’s outburst at the recent Statute Congress, Özel admitted, “The fault lies with us. There was no ill intention, but there was an oversight. We’ve discussed it, and there’s no lingering resentment.”

 

Here are Özel’s responses to our questions:

 

Özel on Erdoğan’s potential candidacy

Q: You’ve faced criticism for suggesting Erdoğan could run again despite constitution. Why do you feel it’s necessary to make this point?

 

A: The criticisms surprised me. Last year, the Supreme Election Council ruled that this would be Erdoğan’s second term. The Constitution allows for two terms, meaning if the 5-year term concludes normally, he can’t run again. As this is his second term, even if he dissolves Parliament, he can’t be a candidate. However, if Parliament calls for an election, Article 116 of the Constitution permits him to run one more time.

 

For Parliament to make such a decision, the AKP and MHP coalition has around 330 votes, but 360 are required. They can’t achieve this alone; they’d need our support.

 

What about constitution?

Q: But you’re suggesting it’s possible despite the Constitution. Isn’t this contradictory?

 

A: That’s the crux of the issue. Our base and opposition voters are calling for early elections, which we support. But it’s inconsistent to demand early elections while insisting Erdoğan shouldn’t be a candidate, because Article 116 allows for his candidacy if Parliament decides on an election.

 

In my view, his previous candidacy was unconstitutional, but the Supreme Election Council ruled on it, and their decisions are final. Moreover, by nominating a candidate against him and participating in the election, we implicitly accepted it as his second term. So, during this second term, if Parliament – not Erdoğan himself – calls for an early election, he can run once more. The constitution is unambiguous on this point.

 

We already consider this five-year-term contentious. Our stance is: don’t approach us just three or six months before the regular election period.

 

Deadline November 2025

Q: What exactly are you proposing?

 

A: We’re suggesting we split these five years: two and a half years for us, two and a half for them. I’m saying, when their two and a half years are up, bring it to Parliament and let’s hold an election. This would be around October 2025.

 

We’re making it clear: if Mr. Erdoğan wants to be a candidate, he shouldn’t come to us after November 2025. That won’t be acceptable. We’re open to discussion until the two and a half year mark, but not after.

 

Q: Isn’t this approach somewhat of a gamble?

 

A: It’s a reflection of our confidence. We trust in ourselves. If Erdoğan has similar confidence, he should accept. He can come in September or October, but not after November.

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.