Middle East Institute compared proposed polices of presidential candidates Harris and Trump regarding Afghanistan and Middle East. While the paper placed Turkey at the margins of American regional policy, it still contain tantalizing tidbits. For instance, Erdogan and most of Turks would prefer to see Trump re-elected. But, will trump really strive to improve the strained relationship?
This is what MEI commented:
Harris is unlikely to raise Turkey’s human rights problems meaningfully, but US-Turkish relations are likely to face regular strains regardless due to some structural and strategic challenges in the bilateral relationship.
- A Harris administration’s almost certain follow-through on withdrawing US forces from Iraq by the end of 2025, in line with the recent agreement between Washington and Baghdad would have direct repercussions for Turkey, potentially creating a security vacuum impacting both Iraq and Syria, undermining Turkey’s Iraq Development Corridor project, and benefiting Iran.
- Erdoğan did not meet with Harris during his recent trip to New York for the UN General Assembly, despite earlier reports indicating he was seeking a meeting with the vice president. Harris’ National Security Advisor Philip Gordon met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his March visit to Washington to discuss the war in Gaza and other regional issues.
While Turkish President Erdoğan would clearly prefer a Trump second term rather than a Harris victory given the former US president’s more personalized, transactional style, the US-Turkish relationship would still likely experience multiple strains under a Trump presidency.
- Trump is unlikely to raise Turkey’s human rights problems meaningfully.
- But if elected, Trump will likely also follow through on withdrawing US forces from Iraq by the end of 2025, in line with the recent agreement between Washington and Baghdad. This will have direct repercussions for Turkey, potentially creating a security vacuum impacting both Iraq and Syria, undermining Turkey’s Iraq Development Corridor project, and benefitting Iran.
- Trump’s likely more hawkish Iran policy may strain ties with Turkey, given relatively close Turkish-Iranian trade and energy relations.
- Trump’s pro-Israel policy and Erdoğan’s pro-Hamas stance will be another problem between the two countries.
- If Trump ceases to provide weapons and aid to Ukraine, this might force an end to the war. This will deny Turkey the upper hand it has gained in its relations with Russia.
- During his previous term in office, Trump took steps that hurt the Turkish economy and humiliated Erdoğan.
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