The AKP-MHP alliance considers the re-election of Trump as the perfect opportunity to get rid of “terror nests” in Northern Iraq and Nort Eastern Syria. According to Defense Minister Yasar Guler, Trump is planning to withdraw from Syria, which will leave poorly armed Syrian Kurds alone with the Turkish Army. Erdogan signaled in his keynote speech on November 10 that Turkey intends to complete the buffer zone spanning her border in Iraq and Syria to push the said terror outfits 30 kms away from the border.
Yet, a potential military campaign runs the risk of angering Moscow, which already stated its opposition, while some member of the new Cabinet, such as National Security Advisor Mike Waltz is known for his close relations to Kurds.
Despite the risks, Erdogan can be expected to order the soldiers to Syria, once again, AND SOON because Turkish security establishment is deeply mindful of Israel supporting the idea of Greater Kurdistan.
Veteran Ankara correspondent Murat Yetkin writes:
The military-political initiative Erdoğan signals appears driven by Türkiye’s imperative to establish a strategic position before Trump’s potential return. He articulates the military component with notable precision:
“In the coming period, we will complete the missing links in our security zone along our borders. Put simply, we will definitively sever all connections between terrorist organizations and our national borders.”
This refers specifically to the Syrian and Iraqi frontiers. During the 2019 Tel Abyad operation in Syria, then-President Trump halted Turkish forces’ advance toward Kobani and Qamishli by dispatching Vice President Pence to Ankara. Under Biden’s administration, U.S. cooperation with PKK-affiliated Syrian organizations has intensified.
With the Gaza Crisis, there has been increasing discussion about the importance of armed Kurdish presence in Syria and Iraq – even without a Kurdish state – as Israel’s forward defense against Iran.
When Erdoğan says “Our real struggle is not just with terrorists, but with those who unleash them upon us, those who have inflicted this terror scourge on our nation for 40 years,” he is actually referring not only to the US, but also to Russia, Iran, and Israel.
Russia is alarmed
Russia has excellent intelligence from Ankara, which allows Putin to forestall developments he considers against Russian interest. In this regard, the warning from Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia’s Special Representative for the Syrian Settlement needs to be noted:
“We do not accept the idea of new operations by Türkiye in Syria. We have repeatedly stated this,” Lavrentiev said.
He emphasized that Russia hopes Türkiye will avoid such steps, as they could have negative consequences for the region.
Lavrentiev argued that Turkish military actions would not resolve the ongoing issues in Syria but would only exacerbate the situation, contributing to further instability in an already volatile region.
He specifically pointed to the unresolved crisis along the Lebanese-Israeli border and the ongoing conflict in Gaza, claiming that any new military operations could destabilize the region even further.
But, what would Trump do, if Turkish soldiers invade Kurdish cantons?
There is hope that under Trump, a resolution might be found concerning the US’ alliance with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a major Pentagon partner in the fight against ISIS in Syria.
“Trump may revisit the US stance in Syria with an accelerated time frame and could ultimately determine that Syria holds little strategic importance for the US, leading to a withdrawal of American troops and an end to the relationship with the Syrian-based YPG,” Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), told Al Arabiya English.
The optimal military strategy would be strike fast and grab as much of Kurdish land as possible, to present Trump with a fait accompli. If Sina Ulgen is correct, Trump will easily forget about this slight. He may even use the Turkish incursion as a cover the expedite military withdrawal from Syria.
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