In the week of November 15, the USD1.6 billion decrease in the CBRT’s net FX reserves excluding swaps, the USD1.6 billion purchase of GDDS by non-residents and the USD2.9 billion increase in FX deposits are particularly noteworthy.
The weekly flow of funds movements can be summarized as follows:
➢ Parity adjusted FX deposits increased by approximately USD2.9 billion, driven by USD596 million purchases by individuals and USD2.33 billion purchases by corporates. Since the week of March 29, FX deposits have declined by USD23.7 billion, with USD12.1 billion of this decrease coming from individuals and USD11.6 billion from corporates.
➢ FX-protected deposits (KKM) decreased to TL1,250 million with a weekly outflow of TL39.3billion (USD1.2 billion). Since the peak in August 2023, KKM accounts have decreased by TL2.158 billion (USD100.3 billion).
➢ The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits decreased from 43.8% to 42.5% WoW. Note that the share of FX deposits and KKM accounts in total deposits had peaked at 68.4% in August 2023.
➢ TL deposits increased by TL433 billion weekly, reaching approximately TL11.8 trillion.
➢ FX loans decreased by 0.6% weekly but have increased by 21% (USD28.7 billion) since the end of March, reaching USD163.4 billion.
➢ Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans increased from 22.2% to 22.5%, while consumer loans rose from 32.3% to 33.2%.
➢ Net foreign inflows into GDDS were USD1.6 billion, with the final balance reaching approximately USD14.9 billion. In equities, net purchases amounted to USD139 million, increasing the stock balance to USD32.1 billion. Year-to-date, net purchases in GDDS reached USD16.6 billion, while net sales in equities reached approximately USD2.6 billion.
➢ In the week of November 15, gross reserves decreased from USD157.3 billion to USD156.7 billion. Net reserves fell by USD1.6 billion, declining from USD60.6 billion to USD59 billion.
Net FX reserves excluding swaps also dropped by USD1.6 billion, reaching USD44 billion. Since the end of March, when net FX reserves excluding swaps were at -USD65.5 billion, the improvement has totaled USD109.6 billion.
➢ According to the CBRT’s daily analytical balance sheet as of November 20, gross reserves decreased by USD3.2 billion, while net reserves and net reserves excluding swaps fell by USD1.2 billion. Consequently, net FX reserves excluding swaps have roughly reached around USD45.2 billion.
By Gedik Invest Research Department