Armenia and Azerbaijan say they have agreed on the terms of a historic peace deal, after over three decades of bitter conflict. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov told journalists on Thursday that negotiations on the text of the deal had been completed. While this is a break-through in the fractious relations between the neighbors, many thorn issues have been left to later agreements.
From Turkey’s perspective, progress on a peace deal could incentivize her to lift the trade sanctions on Armenia. A real bonus for Turkey will be an agreement for the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan proper to Turkey, potentially improving trade with and from China and trans-Caspian countries to increase.
Armenia’s Foreign Ministry later confirmed that they had agreed to Azerbaijan’s latest proposals, and that the agreement ‘On the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations Between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan’ was ready to be signed.
If the agreement were to be signed and upheld, it could see an end to a conflict that has spanned two major wars, countless skirmishes, and has left thousands dead on both sides.
On Thursday evening Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the deal was a compromise, adding that compromises were required for any such peace agreement.
The terms of the deal have not yet been made public.
However, Bayramov said that changes to Armenia’s constitution that have long been demanded by Baku would occur ‘in the next phase’. Azerbaijani officials also insisted that the OSCE Minsk Group be dissolved. The Minsk Group, headed by co-chairs France, Russia, and the United States, was the main venue for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan prior to the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.
An unnamed Western official with knowledge of the topic told OC Media that the agreement included major concessions from Armenia, including the removal of EU monitors from the border and the dropping of lawsuits in international venues.
The official said the deal left out other sticking points, including changes to Armenia’s Constitution. They also said the issue of enclaves in Armenia and Azerbaijan that have been occupied by the other side since the fall of the Soviet Union was also not included.
It also reportedly does not include Azerbaijan’s demand for a corridor through Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan.
A spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the terms of the deal.
It came a day after Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan hinted that an agreement was close.
‘In the near future we will have the opportunity to discuss this approach with the Azerbaijani side and, in general, all issues related to the signing, agreement, and ratification of this agreement’, he said.
Mirzoyan said that Armenia’s approach in its response ‘corresponds to the current challenges of Armenia, our peace agenda, our readiness to establish peace with Azerbaijan, and the interests of the Republic of Armenia.’
He also noted that, among other things, Armenia and Azerbaijan were discussing the ‘exclusion of third-party forces’ on the Armenia–Azerbaijan interstate border and the ‘waiver of disputes, claims, and complaints against each other in international legal platforms’.
‘If agreed upon, signed, and entered into force, these points, as well as all other points, are subject to mandatory implementation’, Mirzoyan said on Wednesday.
The announcement on Thursday appeared to take Armenian officials by surprise. In their statement on Thursday, the foreign ministry said they had proposed making a joint statement on the deal, adding that ‘Official Baku preferred to make a unilateral statement.’
Next phase
Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov said that Armenia has accepted Azerbaijan’s proposals regarding the last remaining disputed points in the deal, though he did not specify what those were. “At the next stage, Baku’s expectations are clear – Armenia must amend its constitution, which still contains territorial claims to Azerbaijan,” the minister said on the sidelines of the XII Global Baku Forum, according to a report by Azerbaijani website Haqqin.
The Zangezur Corridor
Additionally, officials confirmed that Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to withdraw legal cases filed against each other in international judicial organisations.
“It seems more like a breakthrough in the right direction rather than a done deal,” a regional official said.
According to Middle East Eye, it is not immediately clear whether the two countries have reached an agreement on the establishment of the so-called Zangezur Corridor, a proposed transport route that would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenian territory. If established, this corridor could become a major regional trade route.
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