In the week of March 7, the USD3 billion increase in the CBRT’s net FX reserves excluding swaps, the USD159 million sales of GDDS by non-residents, and the USD2.5 billion increase in FX deposits stand out. The weekly movements can be summarized as follows:
➢ Parity-adjusted FX deposits increased by approximately USD2.5 billion, with individual investors purchasing USD285 million and corporates purchasing USD2.2 billion. Since the week of March 29, FX deposits have declined by USD20.1 billion, with USD12 billion of this decrease coming from individuals and USD8.1 billion from corporates.
➢ FX-protected deposits (KKM) declined to TL825.4 billion with a weekly outflow of TL21.2 billion (USD0.68 billion). Since the peak in August 2023, KKM accounts have shrunk by TL2.6 trillion (USD113.8 billion).
➢ The share of FX deposits + KKM in total deposits increased from 40.2% to 40.7%. The share of FX deposits and KKM accounts in total deposits had peaked at 68.4% in August 2023.
➢ TL deposits decreased by TL19 billion weekly, declining to approximately TL12.7 trillion.
➢ FX loans increased by USD5 billion weekly, reaching USD179.6 billion with a 33% (USD44.8 billion) rise since the end of March.
➢ Looking at the annualized 13-week average loan growth, commercial loans increased from 32% to 34.7%, while consumer loans decreased from 41.1% to 40.1%.
➢ Non-residents made USD159 million net sales in GDDS during the week of March 7, bringing the stock balance to approximately USD19.6 billion, while they purchased USD216 million in equities, increasing the stock balance to USD34.5 billion.
➢ In the week of March 7, gross reserves increased from USD165.4 billion to USD169.9 billion. Net reserves rose by USD3.8 billion from USD68.4 billion to USD72.2 billion. Net FX reserves excluding swaps increased by USD3 billion to USD63.7 billion. After a total decline of USD10.7 billion in the previous two weeks, reserves recorded an increase again in the week of March 7.
➢ According to the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, as of March 12, gross reserves increased by USD300 million, net reserves by USD1 billion, while net FX reserves excluding swaps remained flat. The year-to-date increase in net FX reserves excluding swaps stands at USD21.8 billion. Since the end of March, when net FX reserves excluding swaps were at -USD65.5 billion, the total improvement has reached USD129.3 billion.
➢ As of March 7, the total size of Money Market Funds (MMFs) increased by TL44 billion to TL2.04 trillion. The size of Money Market Umbrella Funds increased by TL21.5 billion, while the size of Money Market Funds under the Hedge Umbrella Fund rose by TL20.4 billion. The net asset value of hedge FX funds increased by approximately USD700 million. The dollarization ratio, which includes investment funds, declined from 40.8% to 37% last week. At the beginning of 2024, this ratio stood at approximately 59%.
Source: Gedik Investment
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