İmamoğlu Operation Jeopardizes EU’s Engagement with Turkey

The operation targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has sent shockwaves through the European Union, just as Turkey was making strides toward greater cooperation with the European Defense Community. Coming on the eve of a crucial EU summit, these developments have raised pressing questions about Turkey’s geopolitical direction, prompting speculation on whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is steering Ankara closer to Washington.

Tensions in the Western Alliance

The foreign policy choices of U.S. President Donald Trump have deepened fractures within the Western alliance, pushing the U.S. and Europe toward a crossroads. Trump’s overtures to Russia, his withdrawal of support for Ukraine, and his declarations that the U.S. will no longer guarantee Europe’s security have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape. Taking matters a step further, Trump even suggested acquiring Greenland—territory belonging to NATO ally Denmark—stirring concerns about NATO’s future stability.

Europe’s Push for Strategic Autonomy and Turkey’s Role

In response to growing uncertainty over U.S. commitments, key European powers have accelerated plans to secure the continent’s defense independently. The UK has invited Turkey to participate in its security discussions, while the European Union has initiated dialogue and cooperation with Ankara as part of this broader strategy. However, recent domestic political turmoil in Turkey—particularly İmamoğlu’s detention—has cast a shadow over these collaborative efforts, raising doubts about Turkey’s place in Europe’s emerging security framework.

The Birth of the European Defense Community

With confidence in the Trump administration at an all-time low, the EU has taken critical steps toward ensuring its own security. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, has made sweeping constitutional changes to allocate hundreds of billions of euros for military spending and defense investments. Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, unveiled an ambitious military rearmament program, calling it a "paradigm shift" in German defense policy. He also described it as a foundational step toward the establishment of a European Defense Community.

Why Was Turkey Left Out?

Despite previously advocating for Turkey’s involvement, Merz made no mention of Ankara in his recent speech before the Bundestag, even as he emphasized cooperation with non-EU allies such as the UK and Norway. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin on Tuesday, also avoided any reference to Turkey in his public remarks. While underscoring the importance of partnerships outside the EU, Scholz—who had previously highlighted Turkey’s role in European security—this time focused solely on the UK and Norway. This shift in rhetoric is widely believed to be linked to the revocation of İmamoğlu’s diploma and the escalating legal pressure on opposition figures and journalists in Turkey.

İmamoğlu’s Detention Sparks Diplomatic Fallout

The timing of İmamoğlu’s detention—just one day before an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels—has triggered alarm across European capitals. The summit is set to discuss new European security proposals drafted by the European Commission, which include strengthening defense ties with key partners such as the UK, Norway, and Turkey. Additionally, European Council and European Commission leaders were expected to host a high-level defense meeting on March 21 with Turkey, the UK, Canada, Iceland, Norway, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan via video conference. Now, however, uncertainty looms over whether Turkey will retain its place in these discussions—or whether the recent political crackdown will be reflected in the EU’s official stance following the summit.

Erdoğan’s Strategy: Raising the Stakes

Just last week, President Erdoğan declared Turkey’s ambition for full EU membership. However, Dr. Yaşar Aydın, an expert at the Berlin-based Center for Applied Turkish Studies (CATS) within the Foundation for Science and Policy (SWP), believes Erdoğan’s remarks are purely strategic. "He isn’t interested in EU membership, nor does he even want to start accession negotiations," Aydın argued. "On one hand, Erdoğan claims he wants EU membership; on the other, he’s detaining opposition politicians, journalists, and business leaders. With Erdoğan determined to hold onto power at all costs—investigating even public figures like Vedat Milor—nobody in Brussels believes democratic progress is on the horizon or that Turkey will advance in its EU negotiations."

International Reactions: “A Political Coup”

Marc Pierini, former EU Ambassador to Turkey, took to social media to denounce the situation, warning of a "massive corruption of the rule of law in Turkey" following İmamoğlu’s detention. Other political observers have gone even further, describing recent events as a "political coup in Turkey." Dr. Wolf Piccoli, a political risk consultant, remarked, "It is becoming increasingly clear that Erdoğan will not relinquish power peacefully." As Turkey’s political landscape grows more volatile, the repercussions of İmamoğlu’s detention are likely to extend beyond domestic affairs—reshaping Ankara’s relationships with both the EU and the broader international community.