SA CUR increased by 0.8pps 78.4% in December. In Q4, SA
manufacturing CUR increased by 0.8pps QoQ and 2.6% YoY to 77.8% In 2021, SA manufacturing CUR increased by 4.7pps to 76.6% (2007-2020 Average: 76%)
In yearly comparison, only CUR of durable goods recorded a monthly drop. This was the second drop in a row. Upward trend on the YoY change in intermadiate goods reached to 16th month.
19 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted
positive annual changes. The highest increases were seen on CURs of wearing apperal, beverages and furniture whereas the highest YoY decreases were seen on CURs of computer- electronics, electrical equipment and, repair and installation of machinery.
SA RSCI decreased by 1.7% to 110.1, but continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 17th month in
a row. In Q4, SA Real Sector Confidence decreased by 1.2% QoQ but increased by 1.8% in YoY to 111.1. In 2021, SA Real Sector Confidence increased by 12.6% to 110.3 (2007-2020 Average: 113.1).
Only stocks index recorded a monthly increase. The sharpest drop was seen on general situation which decrease to the lowest levels since the begining of the pandemic. Also, this was the 5th drop in a row.
Despite investment index decreased for the second month in a row, it continued to remain at the optimistic area for the 15th month.
Optimistic outlook continues. On the other hand, sharp monthly drop on the total orders index deserved attention.
Service sector confidence index (118.8) recorded a monthly drop by 0.6%. This was also the second monthly drop in a row. On the other hand, service sector confidence index continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 12 th months consecutively.
In December, all indices for the current Outlook recorded monthly decreases but all of them continued to stay at the optimistic area.
All indices for the Outlook recorded monthly increases and continued to stay at the the optimistic area. The sharpest monthly increase was seen on price index.
Retail-trade sector confidence index recorded the first monthly drop (-0.5%) after 6 months but continued to stay above of 100 (121.5) for the 14th month in a row.
Building activities continued to stay at the optimistic area for the second month in a row but downward trend
on current order books sustained.
Despite employment and price expectation indices continued to stay above of critical value of 100, employment index recorded a sharp drop in December.
Y. F. Securities Research