BETAM announced its growth expectation for the second quarter of 2024.
The institution expects the Turkish economy to contract by 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year, according to its calculations based on the finalized April, May and partially announced June GDP leading indicators. In their calculations with seasonally and calendar adjusted data, the size of the contraction is projected to be 0.6 percent.
BETAM’s statement is below:
Consumption is strong but housing loans decline sharply
In the second quarter of 2024, we anticipate a 9.8 percent increase in imports of consumer goods compared to the previous quarter, but a 7.2 percent decrease in housing loans. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, imports of consumer goods and public consumption expenditures increased significantly (by 25.4 percent and 21.4 percent), while housing loans decreased (by 38.5 percent). In the same period, consumer loans fell by 10.9 percent.
According to seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, we anticipate a 4 percent decline in production expectations and a 3.8 percent increase in public investment expenditures in the second quarter of 2024. The expected changes in other investment leading indicators range between a 3.4 percent decline and a 2.7 percent increase. On an annual basis, we foresee a significant increase of 24.3 percent in public investment expenditures and a significant decrease of 13 percent in consumer loans.
We calculate a 7.4 percent decline in retail inventories and a 6.8 percent decline in production expectations.
In the second quarter of 2024, we expect a 0.3 percent increase in exports and a 3.1 percent increase in imports when we look at seasonally and calendar day adjusted foreign trade figures. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, exports increase by 6.3 percent and non-gold exports by 3.9 percent. Imports increase by 0.1 percent, while imports excluding gold increase by 0.5 percent.
Looking at other seasonally and calendar day adjusted variables used in the GDP forecast, we observe a 3.5 percent decline in the manufacturing industry production index and a 4.4 percent decline in retail sector price expectations. Compared to the same period of the previous year, we expect electricity consumption to increase by 7.1 percent and 12-month investment expectations to decrease by 3.6 percent.
According to our calculations based on the finalized April, May and partially announced June GDP leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to contract by 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to our calculations based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, we expect GDP to contract by 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter.