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Macro Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Index, August 2021

Consumer-Confidence

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased by 1.6% to 78.2 in August (July: 79.5).

Despite there was no consensus available for the data, BloombergHT CCI Index, which is a leading indicator for the data, decreased by 14% MoM to 55.95 in August (July: 65.07). In addition to the ongoing difficulties on the inflation outlook and volatility on the Lira currency, recent fires, floods and pandemic related developments could be seen as the important drivers of the monthly drop.

According to 3-month average figures, CCI increased by 0.1% QoQ but decreased by 1.8% YoY as  of August 2021, respectively.

All sub-indices continued to remain at the pessimistic area. In monthly basis, financial situation of household and assessment on spending money on durable goods increased whereas financial situation expectation and general economic situation expectation decreased for the 2-month in a row.

  • Financial situation of household increased by 5.8% MoM to 61.3 (Prior: 57.9, -5.1% MoM).
  • Financial situation expectation decreased by 1.4% MoM to 78.6 (Prior: 79.8, -3.8% MoM).
  • General economic situation expectation decreased by 9.6% MoM  to 75.3 (Prior: 83.2, -3.3% MoM).
  • Assessment on spending money on durable goods increased by 0.7% MoM to  97.7 (Prior: 97, +0.1% MoM).

The CCI is evaluated within the range of 0-200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the index is above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100. Turkey’s next CCI data will be on September 22.

In August, CCI decreased by 1.6% MoM to 78.2 (July: 79.5). According to 3-month average figures, CCI increased by 0.1% QoQ but decreased by 1.8% YoY as of August 2021, respectively.
All sub-indices continued to remain at the pessimistic area. In monthly basis, financial situation of household and assessment on spending money on durable goods increased whereas financial situation expectation and general economic situation expectation decreased for the 2-month in a row. Recovery trend of assessment on
spending money on durable goods deserved attention.
  Assessment of spending on semi-durables and expectations for wages change were over the critical value of 100 which indicates the positive expectations.
11 of 18 sub-indices recorded monthly decreases. The sharpest monthly drop was seen on economic situation expectation.
  According to 3-month average figures, probability of borrowing money for the consumption expenditures and financial situation expectation of household recorded increases. Assesments on the upward trend on the consumer prices has continued for the 15-month in a row whereas the recovery signs from the buying time condition of durables started to be seen. Despite expectations on inflation and general economic situation continued to deteriorate, expectations on employment remained stable and wages continued to recover. Expectations for wages changes remained at the optimistic area for the 6-month in a row. Source: Y. F. Securities Research

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