Real Turkey:  Should Turkey raise interest rates? Could she?

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZMxubK24oM[/embed]     Should Turkey raise interest rates? Could she?  

• Real Turkey presents its Turkey spring forecasts

 

• 1Q witnessed a slow but steady deterioration in economic fundamentals

 

• 2Q could see the economy enter stagnation

 

• The big mistake at home: Premature normalization

 

• External shocks: US bond yields, strong dollar, energy and food rallies

 

• Fiscal and monetary policy have little maneuvering room.

 

• TL likely to depreciate for the time being.

 

• Current account adjustment delayed to summer.

 

• CPI inflation could test 20% temporarily.

 

• Economic shocks could translate into political instability.

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