Murat Yetkin: Designated most important agenda item in Turkish politics

Republican People's Party (CHP) Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş reacted to the "presidential rivalry within the CHP" discussions that have been at the top of the agenda in recent days, saying that he was "very uncomfortable" being compared to Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Speaking to Sözcü writer Aytunç Erkin, Yavaş said that "the issue to be discussed on TV is the grievances of the people. We don't have the right to get in the way of these," Yavaş said. Stating that his presidential candidacy will be discussed when the time comes, Yavaş said that the issue is being handled by journalists and advisors in a "provocative and seditious" manner. In recent days, comments and news that there is a rivalry in the CHP about a possible presidential candidacy, especially between Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Yavaş, and that this issue has turned into a debate within the party have been occupying the political agenda of Turkey.

Imamoğlu threatened with political ban

What sparked the debate was the lawsuit filed against İmamoğlu for allegedly calling members of the Supreme Electoral Board (YSK) "idiots" during the 2019 local elections. The sentence of 2 years, 7 months and 15 days in prison and a 5-year political ban given in the case is currently being discussed at the Court of Appeal. The outcome of this case could affect not only İmamoğlu's political career, but also the CHP's presidential candidate selection process. In a statement on the issue, CHP Chairman Özgür Özel claimed that "there is a conspiracy to restrict İmamoğlu's possible presidential candidacy." Speaking to reporters in the US, Özel took a tough stance against a possible political ban, saying, "If you do this, if you have not learned from the slap of democracy last time, the nation will apply a much more severe one."

Preparation for possible scenarios at CHP

The CHP administration is working on various scenarios in case of a negative decision by the Court of Appeal.  According to internal party sources, the following options are being considered in case İmamoğlu is banned from politics:

1. Immediately announce İmamoğlu's presidential candidacy 2. Increase pressure for early elections 3. Create public opinion pressure by traveling around Anatolia

CHP Group Deputy Chairman Gökhan Günaydın stated that in such a case they would travel around Anatolia step by step and said, "No one will dare to take that decision on appeal. We will turn the early elections into a situation that will force the country to hold elections in 2026-2027."

Mansur Yavaş factor

Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş is seen as İmamoğlu's strongest rival in the presidential nomination debate. CHP Chairman Özgür Özel said, "There are two strikers in the team right now. One is Mansur Yavaş and the other is Ekrem İmamoğlu. When the day comes, one of our friends will be the presidential candidate," he had said. However, in recent days, a social media post by Yüksel Arslan, Yavaş's former chief of staff and current independent Ankara MP, escalated tensions. Arslan's statement, "The one whose only concern is his career and walking on the route drawn for him is called a project boy, not Mustafa Kemal's soldier," led to comments that he was targeting İmamoğlu. Yavaş stated that he did not approve of this post and advised Arslan to delete the tweet. İmamoğlu, on the other hand, expressed his reaction by saying, "Mansur Yavaş gave the necessary answer," but these statements were still not enough to dampen the discussions that there was a division within the party on this issue.

Intra-party balances

According to BBC Turkish, there are different opinions in the CHP's inner circles on the candidacy race between İmamoğlu and Yavaş. While those close to İmamoğlu emphasize his winning Istanbul twice and his potential to win votes from broad segments of society, those who support Yavaş point out that he stands out as the most reliable politician in public opinion polls. Some CHP members argue that if İmamoğlu is banned from politics, Mansur Yavaş will become the only option for the nomination. On the other hand, CHP Chairman Özgür Özel may also enter the nomination equation. The presidential candidacy debate within the CHP is likely to remain one of the most important agenda items in Turkish politics in the coming period. The outcome of the case against İmamoğlu, Yavaş's position and the internal party balances will be the main factors that will determine how this process will take shape.