April 2 Boycott by CHP Had Measurable Impact, First Data-Driven Analysis Finds

The first comprehensive and data-focused analysis of the April 2, 2025 boycott call by Turkey’s main opposition party CHP has been released. The report, titled "Boycott Impact Analysis", was published by the Institute for Social Studies and explores the social, economic, and spatial consequences of the boycott.

The key takeaway? Yes—the boycott had a noticeable impact.

Drop in Foot Traffic in Opposition-Dominated Districts

Using Google Maps “peak hour” data, researchers assessed the impact of the boycott by analyzing shopping mall foot traffic in Istanbul and Ankara. On April 2, a significant drop in visitor density was observed at malls located in CHP-majority districts. In contrast, foot traffic in pro-government areas remained relatively stable.

• In Istanbul, the City’s Nişantaşı Mall in Şişli saw a 29-point increase in density the day after the boycott, while İstinye Park in Sarıyer and Akmerkez in Beşiktaş saw 14.5 and 13.7-point rebounds, respectively.

• However, AK Party-leaning districts showed only minor fluctuations, suggesting limited participation from pro-government areas.

A similar pattern emerged in Ankara. According to reporting by Karar, malls in CHP-dominant Çankaya saw an average 19-point increase in traffic post-boycott. In contrast, malls in AKP-strongholds Keçiören and Yenimahalle registered increases of no more than 4 points.

Business Owners in Ankara Voice Mixed Reactions

The report’s second section features in-person interviews with 384 shopkeepers and employees in Ankara. Of those surveyed:

• 48% said the boycott negatively affected their business

• 56.7% either supported the boycott or found it understandable due to political frustration

Larger businesses reported more pronounced impacts, indicating that the boycott’s economic footprint was not evenly distributed across sectors.

Spending Drops 26% After Ramadan Holiday

Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) payment systems supported these findings. After adjusting for Ramadan bonuses and typical holiday spending behavior, the analysis showed a 26% decline in consumption following the April boycott.

This drop, despite seasonal effects, signals a noteworthy economic disruption directly linked to the boycott.

Political Identity Shaped Participation

The report stresses that the boycott’s societal impact was far from uniform, highlighting how political affiliation strongly influenced participation.

“While the ruling bloc mobilized to neutralize the boycott in AKP-dominated areas with some success, the protest was clearly felt in opposition strongholds,” the report states.

A Groundbreaking Study in Political and Economic Impact

Prepared by Yağmur Uzunırmak, Yusuf Tuna Alemdar, and Anıl İsmet Aşcı, the study offers one of the first objective analyses of a political boycott’s socio-economic footprint in Turkey.

The findings provide a critical example of how grassroots political action can shape consumer behavior, public space usage, and economic activity, offering valuable insight for political analysts, economists, and civil society observers.