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CHP Surpasses AK Party in Latest Election Poll, Signaling Shift in Voter Sentiment

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A new political landscape is emerging in Turkey, according to the latest ASAL Research public opinion survey, which shows the Republican People's Party (CHP) taking the lead in voter preference. Conducted between March 21-28, 2025, the survey asked respondents: "Which party would you vote for if there were a general election this Sunday?"

The results highlight a notable shift in political momentum, with CHP receiving 33.1% of the vote, overtaking the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which polled at 30.2%. The 2.9-point gap between the two parties reflects growing support for the opposition, particularly in the wake of recent political controversies.

Vote Distribution Reflects Changing Political Dynamics

The full breakdown of voter preferences is as follows:

  • CHP (Republican People's Party) – 33.1%

  • AK Party (Justice and Development Party) – 30.2%

  • DEM Party – 9.2%

  • MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) – 7.8%

  • İYİ Party (Good Party) – 5.3%

  • Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) – 4.3%

  • Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party) – 4.0%

  • TİP (Workers' Party of Turkey) – 1.7%

  • Key Party – 1.2%

  • Other – 3.2%

The results were adjusted to reflect the distribution of undecided voters and those who stated they would abstain from voting.

Opposition Gains Ground, Smaller Parties Face Threshold Pressure

The DEM Party and MHP both remain below the 10% electoral threshold, while the İYİ Party sits precariously at 5.3%, suggesting it is on the edge of parliamentary representation. Meanwhile, the Victory Party and Yeniden Refah Partisi appear to have stabilized at around 4%, hinting at the development of new political undercurrents in Turkish politics.

Recent Arrests Stir Political Climate

The political atmosphere has become increasingly turbulent following the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and other local leaders. This development seems to have influenced public sentiment, potentially fueling the rise in support for opposition parties.

Poll Highlights a Volatile Electoral Environment

The ASAL Research findings suggest that voter preferences in Turkey are in flux, with growing dissatisfaction reflected in the declining support for the ruling AK Party and increasing backing for CHP and other opposition groups.

“The election atmosphere has become increasingly challenging,” the report concluded, noting that current events are directly impacting voter behavior.

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