Conservative commentator:   AKP needs to take CHP  seriously, more than ever

  Once a paragon of pro-AKP conservatism, political commentator Mr Fehmi Kour had fallen out with Erdogan, for slights unknown to mere mortals like us.  He is reborn from his ashes in the center-right KARAR daily, which is –strangely—anti-government. His lates article comments on CHP’s unexpected success in terms of mobilizing masses once considered unreachable for the party. Koru asserts CHP will pile pressure on Erdogan to bring about early elections—by November 2025.  What are its chances of success?   Koru writes:   Following the imprisonment of Istanbul’s Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on March 19, 2025, the most striking consequence of the unfolding process has been seen within the CHP (Republican People's Party), which has launched a struggle far beyond its traditional political boundaries. The CHP is virtually rising from its ashes... Since being shut down by the military after the 1980 coup and re-entering political life in 1995, the CHP had never received more than 26% of the vote in any election. Let’s take a look at the general election results under the leadership of Deniz Baykal:   1995 General Election: 3,011,076 votes, 10.71%   1999 General Election: 2,716,096 votes, 8.71%   2002 General Election: 6,114,843 votes, 19.39%   2007 General Election: 7,300,234 votes, 20.88%   Now under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership:   2011 General Election: 11,155,972 votes, 25.98%   2015 (June 7) General Election: 11,518,139 votes, 24.95%   2015 (Nov 1) General Election: 12,111,812 votes, 25.32%   2018 General Election: 11,271,240 votes, 22.64%   2023 General Election: 13,802,183 votes, 25.35%     [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia_KCIM06GA&t=55s[/embed] The most notable takeaway from this chart is this: The CHP has consistently garnered only about a quarter of the vote.   However, the cancellation of İmamoğlu’s diploma, along with allegations of corruption and terrorism leading to his detention and imprisonment, sparked a mass movement that has propelled the CHP beyond its usual sphere.   On the eve of Eid in Istanbul’s Maltepe district, a minimum of 1.5 million people gathered for a rally. [Some estimates suggest the number was as high as 2.2 million.]   Even more remarkable: during the CHP’s primary election to determine its next presidential candidate, nearly 14 million people from all parties cast their votes—alongside 1.5 million registered CHP members, all voting in favor of İmamoğlu.   The CHP has never witnessed such public engagement in its political history.   So what’s happening?   Some say, “The CHP is finally becoming the People’s Party.”  

WHAT WILL THE CHP DO NEXT?

According to reports, buoyed by the morale of the mass movement, public rallies will be held more frequently. In parallel with those rallies, the CHP has launched a petition campaign under the slogan: “Freedom for İmamoğlu and Early Elections.”   CHP leader Özgür Özel, launching the campaign in İmamoğlu’s hometown of Trabzon, with the signature of a 93-year-old woman, announced that they expect around 30 million citizens from Turkey and abroad to participate.   To put that in context, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received 27,133,837 votes in the first round of the May 14, 2023 presidential election, and 27,864,589 in the second round on May 28, 2023.   CHP aims to collect more signatures than the number of votes Erdoğan received to pressure the government into calling early elections.  

IS THIS EVEN POSSIBLE?

Yes… and no.   There is no legal mechanism in Turkey’s electoral system for elections to be renewed via public petitions. Regular elections are held every five years. There are only two ways to bring elections forward: The Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) can vote for early elections. The President can decide unilaterally.   It appears that the CHP wants to transform the public’s desire for political change—which has spilled into the streets—into a compelling force by reaching a signature count equal to half the electorate, hoping to force a decision on early elections, either through the Parliament, or directly through President Erdoğan himself.   Public opinion already shows an overwhelming expectation for early elections.  

CAN THIS KIND OF PRESSURE SUCCEED?

In countries like the UK and Israel, it’s common for elections to be held ahead of schedule. Governments that have clearly failed and lost public support often succumb to internal pressure or mass protests, prompting early elections.   It seems the CHP believes a similar outcome can be achieved in Turkey.   But will it work?   The AKP (Justice and Development Party) is not like political parties in other democratic nations. It has characteristics that also set it apart from parties in Turkey’s multi-party history.   It is a leader-centric party, and its leader has no qualms about wielding the power of incumbency.   However, in Özgür Özel, the new CHP leader, Erdoğan might have found a rival with similar political tenacity.   One thing is certain: the coming days will bring tough developments for our country and its people.   IMPORTANT DİSCLOSURE:  PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions.  Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.     Follow our  English language YouTube videos  @ REAL TURKEY:   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng