Early Election Poll Shows İmamoğlu Leads Erdoğan by 12 Points

A recent opinion poll conducted by Ankara Research and Consultancy has revealed a sharp rise in public opposition to political pressure in Türkiye, along with a significant lead for Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu over President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a hypothetical presidential election.

The survey, conducted between April 4–8 across 28 provinces, also found that 65% of citizens favor early elections, citing dissatisfaction with the economy and concerns over the opposition crackdown, including İmamoğlu’s controversial detention.

İmamoğlu Leads Erdoğan by Over 12 Points

Respondents were asked who they would support in a potential early presidential vote between İmamoğlu and Erdoğan. The results showed İmamoğlu with a 12.2 percentage point lead—a clear indication of shifting voter sentiment.

CHP Emerges as Leading Party, AKP Slips to Second

The survey confirms recent polling trends showing the ruling AKP consistently trailing the main opposition party CHP, which now ranks as the leading political force if elections were held immediately.

Even AKP-MHP Voters Want Early Elections

While early election demands have been mostly associated with the opposition, this poll found that support for early elections is also rising among AKP and MHP voters. Growing dissatisfaction within the ruling alliance signals a wider political realignment.

Public Skeptical About PKK Disarmament

The poll also touched on public perceptions of the İmralı Process, a renewed initiative suggested by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. Most respondents expressed doubt that the PKK would disarm, indicating low public confidence in the peace process.

DEM Party Seen as Opposition by Ruling Bloc Voters

Respondents were asked whether the pro-Kurdish DEM Party is closer to the government or the opposition. A majority of AKP-MHP supporters identified DEM as aligned with the opposition, despite some claims that the party was moving closer to the ruling coalition.

İmamoğlu’s Arrest Viewed as Unjust by Majority

The survey found that most citizens believe Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest was unjust, reflecting widespread concern over the perceived political nature of his detention.

Strong Public Support for Mahir Polat’s Release

The poll also addressed the case of Mahir Polat, Deputy Secretary of Istanbul Municipality, who was recently detained. The majority of respondents expressed support for his release due to health reasons, with a broad societal consensus forming around the need for his immediate medical discharge.