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Erdogan’s Geopolitical and Economic Wins: A Closer Look at Turkey’s Current Opportunities and Challenges

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In the current global landscape marked by geopolitical uncertainty, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reasons to feel optimistic about his prospects. The Turkish president, now in power for over 20 years, is aiming to extend his tenure beyond the current term limits set to expire in 2028. Several recent developments have positioned him in a favorable light, allowing him to pursue foreign policy, security, and economic goals more effectively than in over a decade.

Key Wins for Erdogan

  1. Syria's Shifting Dynamics
    After years of efforts, Erdogan’s goal of seeing the Assad regime in Syria crumble seems to be materializing. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the ongoing end to the Syrian civil war, over 80,000 Syrian refugees have already returned to Turkey, fulfilling Erdogan's vision of reducing the refugee burden. Moreover, Turkey’s strategic influence in Syria is expanding, thanks to a developing military partnership with the newly formed Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa. Turkey’s role in the Syrian conflict may also provide an opportunity for economic and geopolitical influence.

  2. Progress on the Kurdish Issue
    The Kurdish conflict, which has lasted for over 40 years, could be nearing resolution. The PKK, the main Kurdish militant group, has hinted at a willingness to lay down arms, potentially ending a prolonged and devastating conflict. If achieved, it would mark a significant step toward resolving a historical issue that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

  3. Ukraine's Post-War Reconstruction
    Should a ceasefire in Ukraine materialize, Turkey stands to benefit from reconstruction opportunities for its world-renowned construction firms. Erdogan’s ability to maintain good relations with Russia while simultaneously positioning Turkey as a potential peace broker could prove beneficial for Ukraine’s recovery.

  4. Turkey's Role in European Security
    If the Trump administration reduces its defense commitments to Europe, Turkey could find itself playing a larger role in supplying arms and acting as an intermediary between Europe and Russia. This shift could enhance Turkey's leverage within NATO and potentially strengthen its strategic position on the continent.

  5. Economic Revival
    Turkey’s economy is showing signs of improvement, with GDP growth reaching 3.2% in 2024, surpassing expectations. Although inflation remains high at 39%, it marks the lowest rate in nearly two years. The central bank has also started cautiously reducing interest rates to support economic momentum.

Challenges and Caveats

Despite these promising developments, several risks and challenges remain:

  1. Instability in Syria
    While Turkey is gaining influence in Syria, the situation remains fragile. The newly formed Syrian government is still untested, and recent violence between Assad's forces and the Alawite minority raises concerns about further instability. If the situation deteriorates, Turkey’s economic and strategic gains could quickly evaporate.

  2. The Kurdish Solution
    Reaching a resolution with the Kurds will require delicate balancing. Erdogan's AK Party is supported by the far-right MHP Party, and together they don’t have enough votes to change the constitution or bypass term limits. Any concessions to the Kurds, such as granting autonomy, could alienate Erdogan’s nationalist allies, making the resolution a challenging tightrope walk.

  3. Uncertain Impact of U.S. Realignment
    While Turkey could theoretically benefit from Europe’s efforts to strengthen its defense spending, there are complications. European nations may prefer to keep defense contracts within the EU rather than partnering with Turkey. Furthermore, if the U.S. security umbrella in Europe weakens, Turkey may face serious challenges. The Incirlik airbase, a vital hub for American nuclear weapons and troops, would make Turkey vulnerable if U.S. defense commitments to Europe were to diminish.

Conclusion: A Mixed Bag for Erdogan

Despite the promising trajectory of several key issues, Erdogan’s position remains uncertain. Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s expert on Turkey, emphasizes that although things are aligning favorably for Erdogan, the path forward is not guaranteed. There is potential for both geopolitical and economic gains, but significant risks and challenges remain that could impede Turkey’s ability to assert itself on the global stage.

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