İmamoğlu’s Arrest: A Turning Point for Turkish Democracy?

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has sent shockwaves through Turkey’s political landscape, raising concerns about democratic backsliding and the government’s increasing use of the judiciary to suppress opposition. As tensions mount, Dr. Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, a Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP and an expert on Turkish politics, spoke exclusively with To Vima International Edition to analyze the domestic and international repercussions of these developments.

İmamoğlu’s Arrest: A Turning Point for Turkish Democracy?

Dr. Grigoriadis highlights that İmamoğlu’s detention was foreshadowed by a series of recent arrests targeting opposition figures, suggesting a deliberate strategy to eliminate political rivals. Within hours of the mayor’s arrest, Turkish authorities also revoked his university degree and accused him of corruption, extortion, and links to the outlawed PKK.

“This is a milestone moment,” he explains. “Turkey has been shifting from a democracy to a hybrid regime, and now, potentially, toward autocracy. Looking back, today may be seen as a critical turning point in that process.”

How Will Turkey’s Opposition and Civil Society Respond?

With democracy already under strain, Grigoriadis believes the opposition’s response in the coming days will be crucial. Despite a government-imposed protest ban, demonstrations have erupted, particularly around Istanbul’s City Hall and İmamoğlu’s party headquarters.

Two key questions arise:

1. Will the judiciary uphold what is widely seen as a political case?
2. Can opposition groups and civil society mobilize effectively against the government’s actions?

“The government has banned protests until Sunday,” Grigoriadis notes. “Yet, opposition forces are organizing, and how the government responds will be telling.”

International Fallout: What Will the EU and US Do?

Turkey’s latest crackdown comes at a time when its strategic importance on the world stage has grown. The government may believe that it can act against opponents without facing consequences from its international partners.

However, whether the EU and US will respond decisively remains uncertain.

• EU Relations: “Turkish democrats feel abandoned by Europe,” Grigoriadis points out. “Recent events suggest EU leaders are prioritizing short-term political objectives over democratic values.”
• US Response: The stance of the new Trump administration is another unknown. “Will Washington demand adherence to democratic norms, or will its relationship with Turkey remain purely transactional?”

Greek-Turkish Relations: Will Political Unrest Spill Over?

Despite the upheaval, Grigoriadis does not anticipate an immediate impact on Greek-Turkish relations, as long as the Turkish government remains stable.

Interestingly, a new factor may influence diplomatic ties—progress in the Cyprus peace process. With the UN facilitating dialogue and confidence-building measures emerging, Greece may be reluctant to confront Turkey on democratic backsliding if positive diplomatic progress is underway.

Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Turkey and Its Allies

With political tensions rising, financial markets reacting, and protests escalating, Turkey is at a crossroads. The coming days will determine the strength of domestic resistance—and whether the EU and US will prioritize democracy or geopolitical pragmatism in their dealings with Ankara.