Is the Turkey – Iran spat serious?

After decades of managing tensions through careful balancing, Turkey and Iran now find themselves increasingly at odds following recent shifts in the regional balance of power. With Ankara emboldened and Tehran on its back foot after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the struggle for influence between the two neighbors and long-time rivals is escalating in both Syria and Iraq and could spread well beyond their borders.   The most recent flare-up was sparked by Iranian criticism of Turkey’s Syria policy following the call by jailed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan for his fighters to disarm. In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned Iran against meddling in others’ internal affairs, suggesting such actions could backfire. “People who live in glass houses should not throw stones,” said Fidan, in a rare, veiled threat directed against a country that has long feared Turkey could fan separatist tendencies among its large Turkic minority, which makes up more than 20% of the population. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qnXs2jOFCo&t=51s[/embed] Discussions about the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions to revive the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East have surfaced among Iranian politicians from time to time in recent years. However, the unprecedented tensions between Tehran and Ankara—exacerbated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's threat to support Iranian opposition groups—have propelled the term "neo-Ottoman Empire" to the political discussion in Iran. Iranian foreign policy experts have warned that Turkey has entered a new era, and after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Ankara sees itself as the new regional superpower.   Fidan's comments in an interview with Al Jazeera have sparked widespread speculation among Iranian politicians and experts. Across the political spectrum, they interpret Turkey's actions as an attempt to restore Ottoman-era influence.  

Increasing political disputes

Despite their deep-seated political differences, Turkey and Iran maintain extensive economic ties and have consistently sought to present themselves, at least on the surface, as "Muslim brothers."   Yet their geopolitical rivalries run deep, placing them on opposite sides of nearly every major regional and international issue.   In Karabakh, Iran backs Armenia, while Turkey supports Azerbaijan. In Syria, Iran stood by Bashar al-Assad, whereas Turkey backed opposition groups. Meanwhile, in Palestine, Iran supports Hamas, while Turkey has pursued normalisation with Israel. Moreover, Iran remains at odds with nearly all neighbouring states in the Gulf, while Turkey has expanded its economic and political relations across the region. These are just a few examples from the long list of confrontations between the two countries.   Iranian analysts and politicians view Turkey's recent threats as serving various key objectives: transforming Turkey into a regional superpower, ending four decades of military conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), warning Iran against supporting Alawi groups in Syria, and bolstering Turkish military power in opposition to Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.  

Turkey's regional ambitions and Iran's response

  Ali Akbar Velayati, a conservative politician and senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader on international affairs, also interpreted Fidan’s statements as being influenced by the US' "maximum pressure" campaign and Israel's efforts to rally support for military action against Tehran.   Addressing Turkish officials, he warned: "Turkey must understand that if some in Ankara believe they can weaken Iran's position in the region by parroting misguided narratives under foreign influence, they are gravely mistaken."  

Iran's fading influence

While Iranian politicians continue to assert that Iran holds a superior position in the region compared to Turkey, Iranian analysts, including those aligned with the conservatives, see the growing tensions between Ankara and Tehran as a reflection of Iran's declining regional influence.   [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJYhess_NQo[/embed]   According to this viewpoint, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, the assassination of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, and Israel's devastating war against Hamas in Gaza have all contributed to Turkey's strengthened position. As a result, Ankara is now seeking to expand its influence and power in the Middle East.   Ali Qolhaki, one of these experts, commented on the Iran-Turkey tensions, saying: "Iran's hegemony has faced serious blows in recent months. It is difficult to predict Iran's next move, but it urgently needs to rebuild its image and restore its regional power. Otherwise, the current actors in Turkey and the occupied territories [of Palestine] have dangerous plans for Iran."   This concern is not limited to conservatives. Analysts aligned with Iran's reformist camp also view Turkey's growing power, alongside its strengthening ties with Israel and Western countries, as a troubling development.  

Economic ties at risk

Beyond Turkey's expanding political and military influence across the Middle East and its competition with Iran for influence over pro-Iranian political and militant groups, another issue causing concern in Tehran is the potential strain on economic ties between the two countries.   Despite extensive international sanctions on Iran, Turkey has been one of the few nations to maintain economic relations with Tehran. However, with rising tensions, this relationship now appears increasingly fragile—further deepening Iran's international isolation. IMPORTANT DİSCLOSURE:  PA Turkey intends to inform Turkey watchers with diverse views and opinions.  Articles in our website may not necessarily represent the view of our editorial board or count as endorsement.     Follow our  English language YouTube videos  @ REAL TURKEY:   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng Facebook:  Real Turkey Channel:   https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/