New Poll Shows İmamoğlu Widening Lead Over Erdoğan After Arrest

Turkey is witnessing a political shift following the recent events surrounding Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a key opposition figure. After his university diploma was revoked on March 18, İmamoğlu faced a pre-dawn raid on March 19, was taken into custody, and then formally arrested on the day he was chosen as a 2028 presidential candidate. He has been detained in Silivri since March 23.

Key Developments in the İmamoğlu Case

• İmamoğlu lost his university diploma on March 18.

• He was detained on March 19 in an early-morning raid.

• On March 23, as he was picked by his party as a presidential candidate, he was arrested and sent to Silivri.

• He now faces multiple investigations—ranging from alleged tender-rigging to forming a criminal organization.

Latest Poll: İmamoğlu’s Support on the Rise

A new March survey conducted by data analyst Murat Kızılboğa indicates that recent moves against İmamoğlu—particularly the revocation of his diploma and subsequent arrest—have heightened political tensions in Turkey. Kızılboğa said:

“Ekrem İmamoğlu’nun diplomasının iptali ve ardından gelen gözaltı kararı, Türkiye’de siyasi tansiyonu yükseltti. Bu gelişmeler nedeniyle, Türkiye genelinde erken seçim ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimine ilişkin Mart ayı araştırmasını 5 gün öne çekip yayınlıyoruz.”

According to the poll data:

• In a potential run-off for the presidential election, 54.8% of respondents said “I would vote for Ekrem İmamoğlu”, while 45.2% said “I would vote for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.”

• The 10-point gap between the two candidates is the widest recorded so far.

Scenario with Mansur Yavaş

The survey also explored a second-round scenario with Mansur Yavaş, another prominent opposition figure. While exact numbers were shared, the poll underscores the possibility that Yavaş could also lead should the race narrow down to him versus Erdoğan.

Election Outlook for 2027

These findings matter greatly as Turkey’s next general elections, expected in 2027, approach. İmamoğlu is seen as Erdogan’s main rival, and his arrest has reverberated across Turkish politics, drawing support for the mayor from those who view the legal proceedings as politically motivated.

Observers note that the CHP’s decision to choose İmamoğlu as its 2028 presidential candidate—despite his detention—could further galvanize opposition voters, but it also raises questions about how the legal processes against him might impact his eligibility.