Öcalan’s Call for PKK Disarmament Sparks Hope and Scepticism in Turkey

A rare call from Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), for the outlawed group to disarm and disband has ignited both hope and scepticism across Turkey.

The announcement, made alongside a photo of Öcalan with pro-Kurdish politicians, follows a delicate dialogue as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan seeks to capitalize on shifting regional dynamics, including military operations against PKK militants in northern Iraq and the ongoing upheaval in Syria.

Challenges to a Lasting Peace

Despite Öcalan’s appeal, political analysts doubt whether PKK fighters, entrenched in the Qandil mountains of Iraq, will comply. They highlight two key obstacles:

• Ankara’s continued crackdown on pro-Kurdish political figures, whom the government accuses of having links to the PKK.
• Fears within the PKK’s leadership that disbanding could expose them to retaliation or political irrelevance.

“The PKK sees itself as the defender of Kurdish interests and will not disarm without solid guarantees for the safety and future of its fighters,” said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based political analyst.

Similarly, Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute, warned that PKK leaders fear possible assassination by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) even if offered amnesty-in-exile.

Erdoğan’s Political Strategy

For Erdoğan, 71, the prospect of resolving Turkey’s decades-old Kurdish conflict, which has claimed over 40,000 lives, could be a defining political legacy.

However, analysts suggest he is primarily focused on gaining Kurdish support for a new constitution, which could potentially allow him to seek re-election beyond 2028.

“Erdoğan appears to be using the issue primarily to gain Kurdish support for a new constitution,” Jenkins noted.

Pro-Kurdish Political Demands

Inside Turkey, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party and its allies welcome Öcalan’s call but remain wary of the government's ongoing crackdown on Kurdish politicians and activists.

“A significant concern is whether Erdoğan’s government is genuinely committed to peace, given its continued mass detentions of Kurdish politicians,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the Teneo political risk consultancy.

Uncertain Future

Öcalan’s statement did not explicitly mention reforms but emphasized “democratic consensus” as the fundamental path forward.

DEM Party lawmaker Sırrı Süreyya Önder, citing Öcalan’s remarks, stated that PKK disarmament depends on the recognition of democratic politics and a legal framework.

However, past peace efforts—notably in 2009-2011 and 2013-2015—collapsed into renewed violence, ultimately damaging Erdoğan’s political standing.

With uncertainties looming over both the PKK’s response and Ankara’s true intentions, the potential for a lasting resolution remains highly fragile.