Turkey Faces Tough Choices Amid Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics
Zelensky Erdoğan
Developments in both the north and south are pushing Turkey toward difficult decisions.
US President Trump and his aide Vance’s confrontational approach toward Ukrainian President Zelensky—effectively ambushing him at the White House—has exposed Washington’s shifting stance. It is becoming increasingly clear that the new US administration is on the verge of striking a deal with Moscow.
A US-Russia agreement would put Turkey in a precarious position. Trump's growing detachment from NATO threatens the stability of the collective defense system, of which Turkey is a key member.
It is safe to assume that President Erdoğan’s recent meeting with Zelensky in Ankara—just a week before the anniversary of the Russian invasion—was closely watched by Moscow. In particular, the now-famous image of Erdoğan holding an umbrella for Zelensky in the rain did not go unnoticed. Notably, after Zelensky’s cold reception in Washington, the Ukrainian Embassy in Ankara shared that very photo, signaling Turkey’s continued support.
Both Kyiv and European leaders appear eager to bring Turkish forces into the Ukrainian conflict as the US pulls back. The increasing frequency of phone calls between Erdoğan and European leaders—especially from the UK and EU—supports this theory.
This week, the European Union will convene to discuss the US’s withdrawal from the Ukrainian crisis and Russia’s growing influence. Reports suggest that the EU is preparing a €700 billion defense fund, with €110 billion earmarked for Ukraine.
Given Turkey’s deepening economic crisis, the EU may seek to involve Ankara in the Ukrainian conflict by offering financial incentives—much like it did with the Syrian refugee deal. However, Turkey’s direct involvement on the side of Ukraine would further strain its already fragile relationship with Moscow.
