Türkiye’s Economic Confidence Soars to 22-Month High, April Data Under Scrutiny

In March, Türkiye’s economic confidence index climbed to 100.8, marking its highest level in 22 months, according to figures released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Friday. This reading, up 1.6% from February’s 99.2, signifies a threshold into optimism—any value above 100 indicates a positive outlook.

Consumer and Manufacturing Sectors Lead Gains

Key sectors contributed to the bullish sentiment.

• Consumer confidence advanced 4.6%, reaching 85.9.

• The real sector (manufacturing industry) edged up 0.4% to 103.2.

• Services registered a 0.2% uptick, hitting 114.4.

Notably, the retail trade sector slipped 2.5% to 113.4, and construction receded 0.5% to 88.9, TurkStat data showed.

Context: Before İmamoğlu’s Arrest

The March report captures the economic mood prior to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention on March 19. Facing allegations of corruption and terrorism support, he has been jailed pending trial; the government asserts that judicial decisions are made independently, while the opposition calls the charges politically motivated.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the opposition is “so desperate that they would throw the country and the nation into the fire.”

Looking Ahead to April

Market watchers expect the effects of the mayor’s arrest—and the ensuing calls for protests and economic boycotts—to emerge in April’s data. As of now, the government insists it remains committed to stable governance, while critics warn the political turmoil could dampen future growth prospects.