In its latest update, published on Tuesday, TURKSTAT produced 3 scenarios regarding the population. Türkiye’s population is expected to increase until the mid-2050s and then decrease. It is estimated that the population will fall below 77 million in 2100. While 1 in 10 people will be elderly in 2023, 3 in 10 people are expected to be elderly in 2075.
While Turkstat uses as its base case constant population increase, according to experts the trend currently observed is a continuous slowdown in the population growth rate. It was not possible to reverse this in any country in the world. In this scenario, while Türkiye ages rapidly, the working population will grow more slowly than retirees. Turkey’s “demographic window of opportunity” will close in 15 years.
3 different scenarios were produced
Accordingly, assuming that the current situation in demographic indicators regarding birth, death and migration will continue and may show trends towards increase or decrease, population projections were produced based on 3 different scenarios: main, low and high.
According to the main scenario, which assumes that the current structure in demographic indicators continues, the population of Turkey, which is 85 million 372 thousand 377 people in 2023, is expected to reach 88 million 188 thousand 221 people in 2030 and 93 million 774 thousand 618 people in 2050.
While Turkstat may have used this case as its baseline, probably to pander to President Erdogan who is campaigning on “three child per family” policy, Turkey’s net birth rate has been declining for over a decade. In 2023, Turkey’s population fell first time in in 21st Century, as a result of the Hatay earthquake which cost 50K lives, as well as migration abroad for better economic opportunities, as well as to esacpe Erdogan’s police state, there is no reason to expect it will ever reach 2.1 child per family rate, which is the minimum to keep population constant. According to some experts, the trend rate of births may be as low as 1.5.
Türkiye’s population is expected to increase until the mid-2050s and then decrease. In this context, it is estimated that the population will fall below 77 million in 2100.
Population will fall below 55 million by 2100
According to the low birth scenario– with the highest probability according to experts– which assumes that the rapid decline in fertility indicators will continue, Turkey’s population is estimated to reach its highest size with 89 million 959 thousand 486 people in 2044, and is expected to fall below 55 million in 2100.
According to the high scenario, which assumes that fertility-increasing measures will be effective, it is predicted that Türkiye’s population will exceed 100 million in 2056. These measures have not produced in other countries, such as South Korea.
Life expectancy at birth increasing, population continues to age
The median age, which is an important indicator of the age structure of the population, and the proportion of people aged 65 and over, defined as the elderly population, are expected to increase under all scenarios. As of 2023, while the median age is 34, it is expected to reach 44.8 in 2050, 51.5 in 2075 and 52.2 in 2100 according to the main scenario.
3 in 10 people are expected to be elderly in 2075
In 2023, the proportion of the elderly population in the total population exceeded 10 percent for the first time. According to the main scenario, the elderly population rate is expected to reach 23.1 percent in 2050, 31.7 percent in 2075 and 33.6 percent in 2100. The rate of the working age population in the 15-64 age group is currently 68.3 percent. According to the main scenario, the working age population rate is expected to be 61.9 percent in 2050, 55.9 percent in 2075 and 54.6 percent in 2100.
Demographic window of opportunity closed in mid- 2030s
Projection results indicate that the elderly population rate will exceed 15 percent in the first half of 2030 and the demographic window of opportunity will close. The period when the total dependent population is less than half of the working age population is described as the “demographic window of opportunity”.
The labor force participation rate, currently hovering around 50%, which is one of the lowest among OECD countries and the ever-declining average wages are most likely to lead the Social Security System into bankruptcy.
The state can’t allow the Social Security System to fail, but the funds allocated from the budget to pay pensions and health expenses may reach an insurmountable level, limiting the resources available to mitigate climate change and expand basic welfare services like education and re-skilling, highly needed to match Turkey’s workforce to changing technological trends.
Follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/