Once only a few kilometers and one province short of total victory, Syrian strongman al Assad is feeling the weight of Covid-19 epidemic and US sanctions. His patrons Iran and Russia, squeezed by low energy prices, sanctions and Covid-19, too, are to busy to bolster their economies to afford him much economic and military aid. Assad’s troubles are Turkey’s gain, as Ankara tries to preserve its territorial gains with better economic performance. Ankara must keep its occupied zones in Syria to force Assad into a fair peace deal, which would allow safe return of 4 million Syrian refugees in the country.
Reuters: No sweet victory for Assad
Just last year, President Bashar al-Assad seemed on the brink of crowning military victories by easing his diplomatic isolation and recovering more of Syria without a bullet being fired, reports Reuters.
Not only had U.S.-allied Kurds invited government forces back to the northeast, but businessmen from the once hostile United Arab Emirates visited Damascus to scout out investment opportunities and regional trade had started to pick up.
Thanks to intervention from Russia and Iran on his behalf, nearly all of Syria’s main cities and towns are under government control, with rebels who fought since 2011 to overthrow Assad now confined to a patch of territory near the Turkish frontier.
But today, the mood in Damascus is gloomy
Assad’s hopes of rehabilitation have been put on ice by new U.S. sanctions that will likely scare off all but his closest friends and deter the investment he needs to deliver on promised reconstruction.
The economy, already ravaged by a decade of war, is in deep trouble, hit not only by sanctions but also by the fallout of a financial meltdown in neighbouring Lebanon that has choked off dollars.
While sanctions alone seem unlikely to bring down Assad, experts say they will make it harder for him to consolidate gains and rebuild patronage networks in loyalist areas that paid a heavy price in battle.
With Syria split in three, heavily sanctioned and governed by a pariah, comparisons are being drawn with Iraq in the years between Saddam Hussein’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled him.
“The cascading effect of the sanctions could undermine Assad’s ability to re-extend or maintain control over much of the country. I don’t think it will overthrow him in the near-term, but it will restrict his ability to maintain control,” said David Lesch, a Syria expert and Middle East History professor at Trinity University in Texas.
Assad is counting on the allies that saved him in battle – Russia and Iran – to help him again. But with both sanctioned themselves, neither has the wherewithal to offer the investment Damascus had hoped would flow from countries such as the UAE, China and India, which now run the risk of U.S. sanctions if they deal with Syria.
Turkey adds economic pressure to military gains
Turkey has no intention of relinquishing its Syrian conquests. By keeping these territories out of the news, Erdogan hopes the world will turn a blind eye as he progressively renders Turkish control irreversible.
A Turkish lira zone is being instituted throughout these areas, facilitated by the collapse in value of Syria’s currency. Civil servants, security forces and some private sector employees receive wages in Turkish lira, further reinforcing economic ties. Goods and fuel display Turkish prices. In Idlib, 95 percent of goods originate in Turkey. Economists note that this incorporation within Turkey’s economic orbit amounts to de facto separation from the Syrian regime. Syria expert Charles Lister argues: “The departure of nearly a third of Syrians from their national currency may prove to be the nail in the coffin for Syria’s economy.”
Towns such as Tel Abyad and Jarablus are now under direct Turkish rule, with Ankara providing essential services and overseeing local governance in line with its policy of ensuring that these areas are dominated by a pro-Turkey demographic. Ankara appoints Turkish governors, bolstered by over 10,000 troops in the occupied region. Branches of the Turkish postal service act as banks, and the electricity grid is enmeshed with that of Turkey. Turkish and Arabic are taught jointly in Turkish-run schools. Erdogan talks of inaugurating entirely new cities, making little attempt to mask his regional aspirations.
Ankara is also encouraged by reports that Russia’s patience with the way Assad is running the country may be running out. The ouster of Assad — who now also faces protests in parts of the country under his control — has been a long standing desire of Erdogan’s.
In the convoluted state that the Syrian crisis has reached, Washington and its European allies in Syria are encouraging Ankara to take control over Idlib, even as they object to Turkey’s moves east of the Euphrates River against the Kurds.
With no political settlement for Syria in sight, European countries appear happy enough with the gradual “Turkification” of regions in northern Syria west of the Euphrates. That complacency is driven mainly by a deep-rooted fear of a fresh flood of refugees heading to Europe, claims Semih Idiz writing for al Monitor.
You can follow our English language YouTube videos @ REAL TURKEY: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg
And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng
Facebook: Real Turkey Channel: https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/