Atilla Yesilada video: President Erdogan panics, as his party melts in polls

 

 

Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) has lost the lead to main opposition party CHP in every poll published since 31 March local elections. This is a very uncomfortable position for Erdogan, whose term expires in the next election, but he doesn’t want to retire. What to do? He needs to change the Constitution or persuade the parliament to vote for early elections, which will automatically grant him another term.

Of course, he also needs to reverse his party’s sagging poll results to be reelected. He will first try diversion, polarization, and West-shaming, then manipulating the judiciary to sideline his leading opponents from politics, but these tactics are likely to fail in the face of voter outrage because of declining incomes.
He needs at least two years for Turkey’s austerity program to achieve disinflation AND generate enough room the in the budget for the traditional election porkbarreling to win the next election.

His dilemma is the current austerity program is not strict enough to achieve its goals. What will he do? Is Turkey’s experiment with belt-tightening over?

 

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Published By: Atilla Yeşilada

GlobalSource Partners’ Turkey Country Analyst Atilla Yesilada is the country’s leading political analyst and commentator. He is known throughout the finance and political science world for his thorough and outspoken coverage of Turkey’s political and financial developments. In addition to his extensive writing schedule, he is often called upon to provide his political expertise on major radio and television channels. Based in Istanbul, Atilla is co-founder of the information platform Istanbul Analytics and is one of GlobalSource’s local partners in Turkey. In addition to his consulting work and speaking engagements throughout the US, Europe and the Middle East, he writes regular columns for Turkey’s leading financial websites VATAN and www.paraanaliz.com and has contributed to the financial daily Referans and the liberal daily Radikal.