Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP) has lost the lead to main opposition party CHP in every poll published since 31 March local elections. This is a very uncomfortable position for Erdogan, whose term expires in the next election, but he doesn’t want to retire. What to do? He needs to change the Constitution or persuade the parliament to vote for early elections, which will automatically grant him another term.
Of course, he also needs to reverse his party’s sagging poll results to be reelected. He will first try diversion, polarization, and West-shaming, then manipulating the judiciary to sideline his leading opponents from politics, but these tactics are likely to fail in the face of voter outrage because of declining incomes.
He needs at least two years for Turkey’s austerity program to achieve disinflation AND generate enough room the in the budget for the traditional election porkbarreling to win the next election.
His dilemma is the current austerity program is not strict enough to achieve its goals. What will he do? Is Turkey’s experiment with belt-tightening over?
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