BETAM, well respected research wing of the Bahcesehir Univerity of Turkey, announced its expectations fort he 4Q20 GDP growth in TUrkey. As per their calculations with the finalized October and partially announced GDP leading indicators in November, BETAM expects GDP to grow by 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Based on the seasonal and calendar adjusted data, they anticipate the GDP to expand by 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter.
BETAM notes that most of the leading indicators recorded significant increases and that the 4Q20 GDP performance does not have the reflection of the coronavirus measures introduced in early December.
BETAM estimates that there will be increases in all other seasonal and calendar adjusted variables employed in GDP estimation. While the most striking growth figures were realized with 20.1 percent in the demand for the service sector and 12.4 percent in the investment expectation for the next 12 months, other indicators reflected rather moderate increases.
Compared to the same period of the previous year, BETAM notes that the investment expectation for the next 12 months, demand for the service sector and capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.8 percent, 2.1 percent and 1.5 percent on an annual basis respectively, in contrast to the quarter-on-quarter growth. The reason mainly being the epidemic. The strongest recovery was in the retail sector price expectation (14.3 percent), while the manufacturing industry production index grew by 9.0 percent. Electricity consumption remained almost constant (0.8 percent).