CBRT Survey: Market Participants Lower Inflation Expectations for 2025

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released the results of its March 2025 Survey of Market Participants, indicating a slight decline in inflation expectations among financial and real sector participants.

Key Findings from the Survey

  • Year-end CPI Expectation:
    • Decreased from 28.30% to 28.04%.
  • 12-Month-Ahead CPI Expectation:
    • Declined from 25.26% to 24.55%.
  • 24-Month-Ahead CPI Expectation:
    • Lowered from 17.26% to 17.06%.

Inflation Probability Forecasts

For the next 12 months, participants predict CPI increases in the following probability ranges:

  • 19.00 – 21.99%: 10.85% probability
  • 22.00 – 24.99%: 33.80% probability
  • 25.00 – 27.99%: 36.58% probability

For the next 24 months, the expectations are:

  • 13.00 – 15.99%: 24.48% probability
  • 16.00 – 18.99%: 31.72% probability
  • 19.00 – 21.99%: 27.38% probability

Interest Rate & Exchange Rate Expectations

  • CBRT One-Week Repo Rate Expectation (March-end): 42.50%
  • Overnight Interest Rate Expectation (BIST Repo Market, March-end):
    • Dropped from 44.79% to 42.33%.
  • Year-End USD/TRY Exchange Rate Expectation:
    • Slightly revised from 42.89 TL to 42.79 TL.
  • 12-Month-Ahead USD/TRY Expectation:
    • Increased from 43.96 TL to 44.42 TL.

GDP Growth Expectations

  • 2025 GDP Growth Expectation:
    • Raised from 3.0% to 3.1%.
  • 2026 GDP Growth Expectation:
    • Increased from 3.9% to 4.0%.

The CBRT’s Market Participants Survey continues to provide insight into the evolving expectations of key economic stakeholders, influencing monetary policy and market sentiment.