The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released the results of its March 2025 Survey of Market Participants, indicating a slight decline in inflation expectations among financial and real sector participants.
Key Findings from the Survey
- Year-end CPI Expectation:
- Decreased from 28.30% to 28.04%.
- 12-Month-Ahead CPI Expectation:
- Declined from 25.26% to 24.55%.
- 24-Month-Ahead CPI Expectation:
- Lowered from 17.26% to 17.06%.
Inflation Probability Forecasts
For the next 12 months, participants predict CPI increases in the following probability ranges:
- 19.00 – 21.99%: 10.85% probability
- 22.00 – 24.99%: 33.80% probability
- 25.00 – 27.99%: 36.58% probability
For the next 24 months, the expectations are:
- 13.00 – 15.99%: 24.48% probability
- 16.00 – 18.99%: 31.72% probability
- 19.00 – 21.99%: 27.38% probability
Interest Rate & Exchange Rate Expectations
- CBRT One-Week Repo Rate Expectation (March-end): 42.50%
- Overnight Interest Rate Expectation (BIST Repo Market, March-end):
- Dropped from 44.79% to 42.33%.
- Year-End USD/TRY Exchange Rate Expectation:
- Slightly revised from 42.89 TL to 42.79 TL.
- 12-Month-Ahead USD/TRY Expectation:
- Increased from 43.96 TL to 44.42 TL.
GDP Growth Expectations
- 2025 GDP Growth Expectation:
- Raised from 3.0% to 3.1%.
- 2026 GDP Growth Expectation:
- Increased from 3.9% to 4.0%.
The CBRT’s Market Participants Survey continues to provide insight into the evolving expectations of key economic stakeholders, influencing monetary policy and market sentiment.