Cetin Unsalan is a veteran journalist covering non-financial economy, a YouTube creator and a regular contributor to PA Turkey’s sister newssite Paraanaliz.com
The deep silence following the publication of Turkstat’s consumption basket, with ridiculous prices such as 34 TL for doctor’s examination, 6 thousand TL for rent, and 80 TL for a serving of doner kebabs (gyro), as reported by economist Alaattin Aktaş’s article, was finally broken by the institution with a statement on its own website.
Turkstat did not deny any of the prices calculated by Aktas after pan-staking data combing. Instead it focused on technical issues in its defense, merely trying to prove that price calculations by Aktas were faulty by picking a few examples, which did not represent the gist of Aktas’ arguments. But I would like to draw your attention to the fact that it did not say ‘all the figures listed by Aktas were wrong’, or that some of those prices were indeed used in the calculation of monthly inflation figures.
First of all, this is a confession instead of a valid defense of Turkstat figures. This means that Turkstat announces inflation based on figures that have nothing to do with real life. Not only that, but expenditures on items the prices of which were presumably underestimated made up nearly 70 percent of the consumption basket of people with low income levels.
The controversy does not end here either. During the court proceedings with labor union DİSK, which filed a lawsuit demanding the disclosure of the items in the consumption basket, Turkstat stated in a written statement that there was no such basket—imagine that.
Now, we understand that there are indeed lists of prices for each individual item in the basket, meaning that Turkstat chose obfuscation of truth rather than transparency. Furthermore since Turkstat cannot categorically deny the existence of said data, the numbers in Aktaş’s article have a high likelihood of being correct. It is mocking public opinion to cover measurement errors with highly technical explanations, as Turkstat experts were addressing a statistics congress.
Moreover, if there is a basket of items, for what reason did the court declare at the end of the lawsuit filed by DSIK, that there was no such list, despite ruling earlier that it was a constitutional right to question Turkstat and ordering full disclosure? Will anything be done about this miscarriage of justice?
The issue does not end here either. TURKSTAT does not merely conduct scientific research on inflation and similar data. On the contrary, the figures it announces have a direct impact on life and livelihood of a large number of citizens, because these figures are used to determine COLAs as well as the minimum wage, not to mention forming the base of collective bargaining between the state and public sector unions.
Let’s even go one step further. Based on these figures, the country’s Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, is bragging about entering a disinflation phase. The front person in the administration on the economy is making a statement based on numbers that were first thought to be nonexistent, but then turned out to be present, and which have nothing to do with the real economy, that is, real inflation.
And this is not all, we live in a country where business have their warehouses raided and branded as opportunists, because they raised their prices. TurkStat even reached the point of blaming businesses for inflation, stating that a large portion of inflation was due to producer opportunism, which pads its profit margins. This remark caused an uproar in the business community, receiving a terse response from the President of Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI), saying, “Do your job properly first.”
At the point we have reached now, the matter has gone beyond TURKSTAT. Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek has to appear before the public, hold a live press conference and make a statement about real inflation, which has been affecting every walk of life, from increases in people’s salaries, for at least the last 5 years to many firms being tainted by accusations of profiteering.
In other words, the genie is out of the bottle and, in the words of President Bahçıvan, the defenses put forward by those who did not do their job correctly are null and void. So, the point is in the economic management itself.
The reasons for vast difference between Turkstat measures and other sources should be explained to the public, without drowning the topic in a barrage of fancy words. Now that the mistakes by Turkstat has been proven and it is accepted that the prices in the basket have nothing to do with life itself, all wage and salary hikes must be revisited and compensation be made to victims of Turkstat’s cheating.
There is no one in the country who does not discuss the CPI and I think Turkstat ignores this fact. Even if you announce the most accurate number in the world, if no part of the society believes it you should at least feel uncomfortable about it. The best definition that explains the last statement is “to rise to the top like olive oil”, a favorite Turkish expression.
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