The world entered 2024 with blood and tears. The Ukraine-Russia war and Israel’s inhuman assault on Gaza have been “inherited” into 2024.
Add to this the terrorist attack that Turkey experienced in the last month of 2023 and the never-ending instability in Iraq and Syria, and it is clear that the geography around Turkey will once again be associated with conflict and war, at least in the first weeks of the year.
However, there is still a little hope for 2024.
UKRAINE WAR; WILL THERE BE A POSITIVE SIGN FROM DAVOS?
In the Ukraine war, the parties are closer than ever to a compromise. Although the Ukrainian administration still shows resistance against the idea of a negotiated settlement, decreasing aid from the USA and European countries shows that this cannot be very long-term. Russia, on the one hand, continues to strengthen its war apparatus despite the sanctions, and on the other hand, waits patiently.
As the Western alliance turns its attention to the chaos of Gaza, which is tending to expand into the Middle East, and the Yemeni-Houthi attacks that have already brought trade in the Red Sea to a halt, the likelihood of Ukraine being abandoned to its fate increases. The Ukraine summit, which will take place at the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos at the end of January, is likely to give the most critical signal about the outcome of this war.
CASE FILED AGAINST ISRAEL IN THE INTERNATIONAL COURT
It seems that the current far-right government in Israel, which continues the relentless operation against Gaza, will be checked by international law on the one hand and its own citizens on the other.
The number of people demonstrating against the inhumane operation in Gaza, both in Western countries and on the streets of Tel Aviv, is increasing day by day.
The “war crime and genocide” case filed by the Republic of South Africa against Israel before the International Criminal Court established under the umbrella of the UN seems to further encourage the government or individuals who raise their voices against what is happening in Gaza.
Editor’s note: Lawyers of the ruling Justice and Development Party of Turkey have, too, filed a lawsuit with the International Criminal Court in The Hague, accusing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of genocide against the population of the Gaza Strip. Read more about Turkey’s lawsuit by clicking this link.
HOW LONG DOES SPRING THAW LAST IN THE CAUCASUS?
For Turkey, the biggest development that can be described as “opportunity” in 2024 is taking place in the Caucasus. Negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia are rapidly moving towards a peace agreement. Turkey’s close ally Azerbaijan making peace with Armenia could pave the way for the normalization of Ankara-Yerevan relations.
However, the biggest problem here lies in the fact that Russia has started to turn its attention to this geography;
NAVAL BASE ESTABLISHED BY RUSSIA IN ABHAZIA –
Following the conflicts between Russia and Georgia, two autonomous regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, declared “independence” in 2008. Russia also announced that it recognized these declarations. Thus, the two regions actually came under Russia’s sphere of influence. As EU gave Georgia “candidate” status for full membership, Russia took the first steps to open a naval base in the easternmost part of the Black Sea, in the territory of Abkhazia. This base will be the second military base in the Black Sea, after the port in Crimea, which Russia pried away from Ukraine in a similar way and took it under its de facto control.
MOSCOW’S MESSAGE TO ARMENIA
Russia did not stop there; In the last days of 2023, signs began to appear that Moscow was now setting its sights on Armenia, which is increasingly re-aligning its relations with the West. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin made a statement claiming that the USA is planning to open a ‘second front’ against Russia in the South Caucasus. The diplomatic reading of this statement, which seemingly blames the USA, brings with it the opposite message: Moscow administration is preparing to take action to prevent Armenia’s rapprochement with the West. Possible steps taken by Russia in this direction may cause Turkey, which hopes to see peace and stability in the Caucasus, to be exposed to a new “circle of fire”.
The Caucasus is likely to be the region that Turkey will talk about the most in the coming period, one way or another.
By Zeynep Gurcanli, veteran foreign affairs columnist for Ekonomim.com news site
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