Officials and experts are optimistic that Ankara will make progress on Syria, S-400s and F-35 jets during a second term for the Republican President. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism on Friday regarding Donald Trump’s second term as US president, hoping it would help repair Turkey’s strained relationship with the United States. Yet, a closer look at the interaction between Erdogan and Trump suggests that the relationship had serious ups and downs. How Trump 2.0 and Erdogan still 1.0 will work out will depend on Erdogan changing his habits, as well as Trump’s loaylty to a “friend”.
Turkey angered the Trump Administration in 2019 by purchasing Russian S-400 missile defences. In response, Washington cancelled a planned sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and ousted it from a joint production programme for the planes.
In late 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives approved sanctions on Turkey’s defence industry over the S-400s, a package that Trump initially planned to veto but ultimately approved before leaving office. Yet, the Turkish view is that Trump only approved the sanctions to avert a bigger crisis between Ankara and an enraged Congress.
Turkey’s main criticism of U.S. foreign policy has been its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main U.S. ally against Islamic State in northern Syria for the past decade.
The SDF is spearheaded by a Kurdish group that Ankara says is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey, the United States and European Union deem a terrorist organisation. Ankara regularly targets the PKK in cross border military strikes in Syria and Iraq.
In 2019, Trump abruptly withdrew U.S. troops supporting the SDF, effectively greenlighting one of Turkey’s crossborder operations into Syria, while warning Erdogan not to send the military on Syrian Kurds.
How Trump intends to treat Syrian Kurds is of huge importance to Ankara, which views the predominant Kurdish political entity YPG-PYD as an extension of PKK terror organization. This is a topic, where Turkey may get what she wants. Donald Trump wants to remove US troops from northern Syria rather than leaving them as “cannon fodder” if fighting broke out between Turkey and Kurdish fighters, Robert F Kennedy Jr said on Wednesday.
The biggest spat between Trump and Erdogan exploded over Turkey’s detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson helped spark the first in a series of lira currency crashes that propelled years of economic turmoil, and a cost-of-living crisis that still lingers with Turkish inflation near 50%.
After Brunson was detained over alleged ties to Kurdish militants and to Fethullah Gulen, leader of an organisation Ankara says launched a failed 2016 coup, Trump’s White House imposed sanctions on two government ministers, and then tariffs of 20% on Turkish aluminium and 50% on steel.
Turkey responded by doubling tariffs on U.S. cars to 120% and on alcohol to 140%. But the Turkish lira was already tumbling, driven also by concerns over late interest rate hikes.
Brunson was finally freed and returned to the United States in 2018 after being found guilty by the Turkish authorities of aiding terrorism.
In 2019, Washington ended Turkey’s preferential trade status but reduced steel tariffs to 25%, prompting Ankara to lower tariffs on some U.S. imports.
On Thursday, Ankara said it hoped U.S. tariffs on its steel and textiles would fall in Trump’s second term.
At the end though, Erdogan and Trump managed to find model of working together, despite significant differences over several policy areas, just like Erdogan and Putin, who disagree on Caucasus and Syria.
Looking forward, Erdogan is optimistic that Trump will facilitate better relations. Erdogan indicated that he would aim to discuss key issues with Trump, including the purchase of F-35 fighter jets and resolving their disagreements over Ankara’s purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defence systems.
“Although there were occasional differences of opinion, the model partnership between Turkey and the US is indisputable,” Erdogan said, noting that he previously worked closely with Trump and had invited him for an official visit next year.
One notable aspect of Erdogan’s statement was his emphasis on utilising “phone diplomacy” to address critical issues, such as Israel’s wars on Gaza and Lebanon and Trump’s potential decision to withdraw US forces from Syria. Last time he was in power, Trump gave Erdogan his personal phone number, reports Middle East Eye.
Erdogan is justified in expecting a better relationship, but he needs to do his share, too. His endless tirades over Israel may anger the new White House, which draws significant support from Christian Zionists.
On Friday, Erdogan urged Trump to honour his campaign pledges and take steps to end the Israeli onslaught on Gaza and Lebanon, calling for an immediate halt to arms shipments to Israel as a first step.
Assuming Trump can persuade Netanyahu to end the wars in Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the bi-lateral relationship has indeed much room to improve:
“There wasn’t a festive mode in Ankara but we believe there is a big room for better dialogue with Trump,” a Turkish official told Middle East Eye.
“We weren’t surprised by the election results and don’t expect a perfect relationship, but it could work very well under the right conditions.”
Turkish columnist Yahya Bostan, writing for Yeni Safak, revealed this week that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Richard Grenell, a senior foreign policy advisor to Trump and a potential candidate for secretary of state, during the Nato summit in Washington in July.
Grenell recently described Fidan as “an old friend” and emphasised that Washington should treat Turkey with respect as a Nato ally.
“There wasn’t a festive mode in Ankara but we believe there is a big room for better dialogue with Trump,” a Turkish official told Middle East Eye.
“We weren’t surprised by the election results and don’t expect a perfect relationship, but it could work very well under the right conditions.”
Turkish columnist Yahya Bostan, writing for Yeni Safak, revealed this week that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Richard Grenell, a senior foreign policy advisor to Trump and a potential candidate for secretary of state, during the Nato summit in Washington in July.
Grenell recently described Fidan as “an old friend” and emphasised that Washington should treat Turkey with respect as a Nato ally.
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