Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again underscored Turkey’s EU accession as a strategic priority, asserting that the bloc’s geopolitical relevance hinges on Ankara’s full membership. “At every opportunity, I emphasize that this is our strategic goal,” Erdogan stated during Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Ankara.
Erdogan’s rhetoric, however, carried a sharp edge. “If the EU wants to prevent its loss of power, it can only do so through Turkey’s full membership,” he declared, portraying Turkey not as a hopeful candidate but as a necessary pillar of Europe’s future.
Geopolitical Shifts and Turkey’s Calculated Timing
Turkey’s renewed EU push comes amid shifting global dynamics, particularly with the return of Donald Trump’s influence on the world stage. European leaders, grappling with the uncertainty of Washington’s evolving foreign policy priorities, are reassessing their security landscape.
This power shift has created a vacuum, one that Erdogan is eager to fill. Turkey’s geopolitical positioning, straddling Europe and Asia, makes it a key player in regional and global affairs. Erdogan’s ambitions extend beyond regional disputes—from the war in Ukraine to Middle Eastern conflicts and even to calls for a Muslim nation to hold a permanent UN Security Council seat. His aggressive military expansion program and assertive foreign policy signal a bid for a more dominant role in global affairs.
Europe’s Dilemma: Military Benefits vs. Political Roadblocks
Erdogan’s assertion that Turkey could enhance the EU’s global standing has drawn mixed reactions. While some European leaders, like NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, have called for deeper ties with Ankara, others remain skeptical. Former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen told Reuters: “European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Turkey anymore.”
However, Turkey’s EU accession faces significant political obstacles:
- Human Rights & Rule of Law: Persistent concerns over Turkey’s democratic backsliding, media restrictions, and judicial independence remain major hurdles.
- Security & Foreign Policy Conflicts: Turkey’s ties with Russia, its ambiguous stance on Ukraine, and unresolved tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus fuel European distrust.
- Erdogan’s Regional Strategy: Ankara’s economic and military dealings with Moscow remain a sticking point, as Europe prioritizes containing Russian influence.
Greece, Cyprus, and the Shifting Power Balance
For Greece and Cyprus, Turkey’s growing influence within European circles presents both a challenge and a strategic concern. Athens has long leveraged EU institutions to counterbalance Turkish territorial claims, particularly in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.
Greek officials are closely monitoring Erdogan’s renewed engagement with European leaders, wary of potential shifts in the EU’s approach to Turkey. Greek media have expressed fears that Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy could embolden Erdogan, with one columnist warning that “Trump is capable of ceding not just half but the entire Aegean to Turkey.”
Athens’ Response: Strategic Alliances and Measured Diplomacy
Amidst these uncertainties, Greece has strengthened its ties with Israel, expanding military cooperation as part of a broader strategy to position itself as a stabilizing force in the region. This partnership, while not openly emphasized, could serve as a counterweight to Turkey’s regional ambitions, especially in Washington’s eyes.
Meanwhile, Erdogan’s well-documented support for Hamas remains a significant obstacle to his EU aspirations. With most European leaders and the US firmly opposed to the militant group, Erdogan’s stance is unlikely to win him favor in Brussels or Washington.
The Road Ahead: Turkey’s EU Bid in a Shifting Global Order
Despite Erdogan’s insistence that Turkey’s EU accession is inevitable, the road remains fraught with geopolitical, legal, and ideological barriers. Europe, grappling with its own security concerns and the unpredictability of US foreign policy, may deepen ties with Turkey in some areas—but full EU membership remains a distant prospect unless Ankara commits to fundamental political reforms and a clear strategic realignment away from Moscow.
For now, Erdogan’s brash diplomacy may keep Turkey at the negotiating table, but whether it can secure a seat among Europe’s decision-makers is another question entirely.