Flow of data point at mildly weakening economy in February

Turkey’s Real Sector Confidence Index in February decreased by 0.3 points on monthly basis in seasonally adjusted terms to 108.7.  In non-adjusted terms Index rose to 109.3 from 107.0 in January. 

While the announced data confirm a mild slowdown in Turkey’s unbalanced growth, the data also put the question of “how tight the monetary policy really is” under the spotlights once again.

Sub-indices show the export order quantity in the next three months, the production volume in the next three months, the total employment in the next three months, the fixed capital investment expenditure and the evaluations regarding the current total order amount pulled up the general index. In contrast, the total order quantity in the last three months, the current finished goods stock and the evaluations of the general course of the economy all weakened.

Sectoral Confidence Indices in February (seasonally adjusted) for services decreased by 1.4%; for retail trade increased by 0.4% and for construction decreased by 1.3%.

Seasonally adjusted sectoral confidence indices, February 2021

In services sector business situation over past three months sub-index decreased by 1.1% mom to 101.8. Demand-turnover over past three months sub-index remained flat at 98.0 and demand-turnover expectation over next three months sub-index decreased by 3.1% mom to 101.4.

In retail trade sector, business activity-sales over past three months sub-index increased by 2.8% to 122.2. Current volume of stock sub-index increased by 2.8% to 92.6 and business activity-sales expectation over next three months sub-index decreased by 4.0% to 112.0.

In construction sector, current overall order books sub-index became 76.9 by increasing 1.6%. Total employment expectation over next three months sub-index decreased by 3.6% to 89.3.

Hence, Turkey’s February Capacity Utilization Rate (seasonally adjusted) of manufacturing industry decreased by 0,1 points on monthly basis to 75,5%. Non adjusted figure reflected a drop to 74.9% in February capacity utilization rate from 75.4% a month ago to 74.9% in February.