P.A. Turkey

Goldman sees Turkey inflation of near 80% before relief comes

Goldman Sachs said on Friday it expects annual inflation in Turkey to reach almost 80% before easing to 60% by the end of 2022, thanks to so-called favorable base effects.  CB’S Monthly Survey put 12-mth ahead CPI at 40%, still awful, but a vast improvement compared to the current headline of 71% per annum.

 

Inflation in Turkey hit 73.5% in May, stoked by a currency crisis last year and soaring energy costs due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

The lira lost 44% against the dollar in 2021 in addition to another 24% so far this year. It remains under pressure as real yields in Turkey are deeply negative amid a global tightening cycle.

Turkey’s Slow-Motion Currency Crash

 

 

Central Bank Monthly Expectations Survey:   12-mth CPI at

Central Bank of Turkey released its monthly Survey of Expectations by Market and Economic Participants on Friday, which reveals 12-mth ahead CPI inflation at 40%.  The survey revealed increasing pessimism about future economic conditions.  Here are some of the highlights

 

Policy rate would be kept stable in this month and next 3 months, according to the CBRT’s Survey of Market Participants.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reuters, local brokerage firm reports

 

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