Ankara has Great Expectations from Trump, as the number of differences of opinion grow by the day between the erstwhile allies. However, some of Trump’s cabinet appointments are perceived either as anti-Turkey, or pro-Kurdish, which is anathema to Turkey’s powerful security establishment.
Director of Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program and Author of Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria, Mrs Gonul Tol explained why the Trump cabinet is raising alarms in Ankara. This is the expert’s X post:
Here is my short take on what Trump 2.0 could mean for Turkey-US ties. I argue that Trump’s previous term in office should give Ankara plenty to feel apprehensive about in his second term. Erdoğan voiced enthusiasm at the results of Nov. 5, but he could come to regret it.
From Syria to east Med., Trump’s actions in his first term undermined Turkish interests. Trump’s second presidency could pose further challenges for Ankara.
Sen. Marco Rubio, reportedly Trump’s pick for secretary of state, was one of the co-authors of the 2019 East Med Act and is known to be a hawk on China and Iran. The Greek-Cypriot-Israeli relationship is likely to continue to grow in the coming years, hardly good news for Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean policy.
If the new Trump administration again pursues a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, Turkey, a close trade and energy partner of Iran, could find itself in a difficult spot.
A tougher US approach toward China could also make Ankara uncomfortable. Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chinese giant Huawei to collaborate on the development of the fifth-generation technology standard for broadband cellular networks (5G) in Turkey. For Trump, the competition for 5G deployment is essentially a two-horse race between the US and China, and the returning US president is dedicated to an American win.
Another potential flashpoint in US-Turkey ties is critical minerals. Turkey is collaborating with China on that front as well, which will not please Trump. The US president-elect’s pick for national security advisor, Mike Waltz, is not great news for Ankara either. Rep. Waltz is a staunch supporter of the Syrian Kurdish militia and was behind the decision to slap Turkey with sanctions in 2019.
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