Experts believe the spread of new coronavirus variants in Africa has contributed to an increase in both cases and deaths across the continent, reports BBC News. The African flare-up comes after India’s health crisis spreading to the poorly-tested hinterland and Lat Am deaths surpassing 1 billion.
India’s problem could soon become Europe’s, as scientists warn the UK government that waiting for definitive proof the Indian variant is more transmissible could mean any action to halt the spread might be too little, too late.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) published a document on Friday urging “rapid containment” in areas affected by the B.1.617.2 variant that is believed to have originated in India.
The briefing note states: “Incontrovertible evidence that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible may come too late.
In Africa, at least a dozen countries have so far confirmed presence of the variant first detected in India late last year.
But there is concern that new variants can’t easily be tracked because the testing required to identify them isn’t widely available.
What’s the role of the Indian variant?
The new wave of infections in Africa is thought to be partly associated with the emergence of some variants that are more transmissible.
Uganda was the first country on the continent to confirm the presence of a variant first identified in India late last year.
This variant has now been reported in Kenya, Morocco, Algeria, South Africa, Botswana, Angola, DR Congo, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
It has been classified by the WHO as a “variant of global concern” with possible increased transmissibility.
Another variant of the virus which emerged in South Africa last year contributed to record case numbers in the southern African region, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
This variant has also been recorded in more than 20 other African countries.
It’s highly likely to have reached other countries, but few are able to carry out the specialized genomic sequencing to detect coronavirus variants.
In Nigeria, scientists have also identified a new variant of the virus, although there is currently no evidence to indicate it is contributing to increased transmission.
The WHO and the African Centers for Disease Control launched a network of laboratories last year to try to boost the continent’s capacity to identify these variants.
It said the emergence of new, and more contagious variants “reinforced the need to step up genomic surveillance.”
This involves analyzing the code of the virus to understand its genetic makeup.
However, a recent article in The Lancet pointed out that while efforts were underway to expand this type of work, there were issues around funding, as well as shortages of reagents and staff with the skills required.
What’s happening to case numbers?
Over the past month, new cases across the continent declined by 9%, according to the CDC.
New cases have been rising in countries such as South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria but dropping in DR Congo, Ethiopia and Kenya.
“Africa is not out of the woods yet, and complacency is not an option at this time,” says the head of immunization at the WHO Africa office, Richard Mihigo.
Most countries have launched Covid-19 immunisation campaigns, but there are still a few countries yet to roll out or even acquire vaccines.
Death rates have been rising
The number of Covid-related deaths rose by 4% in the past month, according to CDC data.
During the first stage of the pandemic, Africa’s overall fatality rate – the proportion of those with Covid who then die – was lower than elsewhere in the world.
There were a number of theories put forward as to why that might be the case, such as the relatively younger population, and possible cross-immunity from other coronaviruses.
But the Africa CDC has warned about rising fatality rates in the continent, saying that of the 55 countries they monitor, 21 are reporting fatality rates above the current global average of 2.2%.
The fatality rate for Africa has crept up since July last year when it was on average 2.1% – to 2.7% in April this year (measured over the duration of the pandemic).
A study published in The Lancet suggests hospital patients who are critically ill with Covid-19 in Africa are far more likely to die than in other parts of the world because of limited healthcare resources.
Researchers, who looked at patients in hospitals across 10 African countries, found that nearly half of those who needed intensive care died, whereas the global average was less than a third.
The global fatality rate has fallen since the start of the pandemic, which in itself would put more African countries above the global average.
And fatality rates are also affected by how much testing is done – a country with low levels of testing will show a higher death rate because many non-fatal Covid cases are going undetected.
More importantly, data for deaths should be treated with caution, given the wide variations in how countries record them.
In South Africa, research into excess deaths – that’s the number of deaths in a certain period above what would normally be expected – shows that there were 153,668 more deaths between 6 May last year and 10 April this year.
The official death toll from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic is just above 53,000.
And South Africa was just one of eight countries on the continent that the BBC found had adequate death registration systems.
So coronavirus deaths across Africa as a whole are likely to be under-recorded.
While China, parts of Asia, US and Europe celebrate the end of the pandemic, this is not how the world experiences the situation. The differences of perception have important implications for the global economy. The three main geographic areas where the infections are raging, namely LatAm, India and it hinterland and Africa at large are both consumers of manufactured goods and suppliers of valuable metals and minerals. It would be foolish to assume that the global economy can stage a sustainable recovery until these three localities are freed of the tyranny of disease.
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