Iraq’s Health Ministry has warned of “dire consequences” ahead because citizens are not heeding coronavirus prevention measures, after the country reached a new high in daily infection rates. A hesitant roll-out and reluctance among the Muslim population about the ingredients of the vaccines being non-kosher also delays the campaign. This problem is common to many Moslem nations. Despite higher oil prices, chronic corruption, sectarian infighting and institutionalized cronyism dim the economic outlook, which could trigger a deadly feed-back loop with Covid-19.
Iraq recorded 8,331 new virus cases within a 24-hour period on Wednesday, the highest figure since the ministry began keeping records at the onset of the pandemic last year. That was double the number of new infections from last month, and well ahead of a previous peak of some 6,000 in March.
Death rates are still fairly low relative to new infections. At least 14,606 people have died, from a total of 903,439 cases.
The severe spike in case numbers prompted the Health Ministry to issue a grave warning in a statement on Thursday, saying the rise was due to laxity among Iraqis who flout preventative measures.
The statement said public commitment toward heeding virus prevention measures was “almost non-existent in most regions of Iraq,” where citizens rarely wear face masks and continue to hold large gatherings.
Those who continue to flout prevention measures and instructions “are responsible for the increase in the number of infections,” the statement said. It called on tribal sheikhs, activists and influential figures to speak out and inform the public on the severity of the pandemic.
Iraq began administering vaccines in late March, but rollout has been slow owing to low demand. Many Iraqis are suspicious of the vaccine and few have booked appointments to receive a dose. Rumors of debilitating side-effects have also put many off.
The ministry urged citizens to inoculate, and said vaccination was the only way to control the outbreak.
World Bank April 2021 Report
COVID-19 repercussions and oil price volatility are deepening Iraq’s economic woes. GDP contracted sharply in 2020 driven by a steep decline in oil production and non-oil output. Twin surpluses turned into large deficits in 2020 putting pressure on public debt and foreign currency reserves. Economic outlook depends on oil market developments and reforms implementation. Key risks relate to the deteriorating security situation, delayed vaccination rollout and setbacks in oil markets, with severe consequences on poverty and unemployment.
Recent Developments
The twin shocks took a heavy toll on Iraq’s economy, with GDP (at factor cost) posting a contraction of 10.4% in 2020. Growth was weighed down by depressed global oil demand and adherence to OPEC+ production cuts agreement which led to a 17.6% contraction in oil GDP. The non-oil economy also underwent a 9% contraction as the COVID-19 induced lockdown battered domestic demand with religious tourism and services sectors suffering the most. Weak domestic demand and cheaper imported goods kept inflation pressures low with headline and core inflation only edging up to 0.6 and 1.0% in 2020, respectively.
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