Haaretz columnist Zvi Bar’el claims that “Economic deals with Jordan, border coordination with Egypt, defense deals with Turkey, and normalization with Saudi Arabia have all been impacted by the Gaza war. Israel must tread carefully to avoid reversing decades of progress in Middle East integration”. In terms of Turkey and Jordan, no matter how the horrifying atrocities in Gazza end, the relationship with Israel may be terminally broken. This is a tangled web of affairs, which stands to hurt all three countries in myriad ways.
Turkey, Jordan pushing to prosecute Israel in ICC
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of war crimes and called for it to be prosecuted before the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Last week, the Istanbul Bar Association together with the Justice Commission of the Turkish Grand National Assembly put the Turkish plan in motion. On Thursday, a representative of the Istanbul Bar placed a thick dossier, replete with photographs, videos and press reports that ostensibly constitute proof that Israel committed war crimes.
It is not yet clear how the ICC intends to handle the Turkish request, but it may gain momentum when other countries join the call.
One of those countries is Jordan, where the parliament has already begun debating the issue, and whose foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, has intensified his rhetoric calling for Israel to be held accountable, namely that it be prosecuted for war crimes.
Water-for-electricity deal in jeopardy
Jordan decided two weeks ago due to public pressure to postpone the signature of a deal with Israel in which it would have received water in exchange for electricity.
Under the terms of the deal, Israel is supposed to supply Jordan with 200 million cubic meters of water and in exchange will receive 600 megawatts of electricity produced in solar farms to be built in Jordan with funding from the UAE. The importance of this project is not only economic, but it also reflects the integrated regional relations created by the Abraham Accords.
Unsurprisingly, Israel was not particularly impressed by the Jordanian decision and officials declined to go on record about the move. Naftali Bennett who advanced the project when he was prime minister tweeted on X (formerly Twitter) that if Jordan doesn’t want the deal then there is no need to go ahead.
Also, last on Thursday the Jordanian parliament decided to “review” all the agreements signed between Israel and the kingdom, while at the same time Foreign Minister Safadi declared in Barcelona at the Regional Forum of Foreign Ministers of the Union for the Mediterranean that in light of Israel’s conduct, “the peace agreement between Israel and Jordan is on the shelf gathering dust.”
Jordanian commentators have said they view the statement as a clear signal by the king that he is willing to use the peace agreement itself as leverage against Israel and as a threat against what Jordan perceives as Israel’s intention to transfer Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank.
Turkey to pressure Israel in many ways
In addition to the initiative to file a lawsuit with the ICC, Turkey is organizing a naval flotilla to break the Israeli blockade of the Gaza Strip.
The Turks also intend to reach the Rafah crossing in order to force Egypt to allow the entry of goods. Last Thursday, representatives of human rights organizations led by the Mavi Marmara Freedom and Solidarity Association convened in Istanbul and announced that a large international aid delegation would set sail no later than the beginning of January.
The Turkey – Israel NG pipeline is “dead in water”
While Israel’s off-shore NG reserves are not considered particularly abundant, it does have substantial export potential. Currently gas is sold to Jordan and Egypt through pipestems. But, EU is the richer market which also happens to be in dire need to diversify gas imports.
Carole Nakhle of GSI writes “Other export options have been considered – such as the EastMed pipeline – from Israeli and Cypriot gas fields to Cyprus, onward to Crete and then the Greek mainland before joining the existing Poseidon pipeline across the Ionian Sea to Italy. The project, however, has failed to raise the necessary funding to cover its price tag of 6 billion euros.
Another option is an offshore pipeline from Israel to Turkey and from there connecting to the existing pipeline network between Turkey and Europe. Technically, the proposal is much simpler and probably cheaper than EastMed, but the relationship between Israel and Turkey has been patchy and their respective governments have clashed over Israel’s actions in Gaza”.
Turkey will pay a price for her support of HAMAS
Turkey may pay a price, military and politically, for its stance on the war in Gaza. Erdogan realizes that Turkey’s $20 billion deal to purchase F-16 fighter jets from the United States will not be implemented in the near future, if at all, and this time not only because Turkey dragged its feet in approving Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Washington is furious that Turkey is not collaborating with American sanctions against Russia, and about the rapidly growing commercial between Russia and Turkey, which have spiked over the past few months and include the sale of so-called “essential components” that can be used by Russian military industries.
This week, the US Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson is due to visit Turkey to discuss implementation of sanctions against Russia with his counterparts, as well as the fact that Turkey continues to allow Hamas-linked companies to operate in its territory.
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