If Turkey decides to arm the rebel forces, it is unclear how Israel will respond and whether it will be able to thwart the transfer of American-backed weapons, argues Amir Bohbot for Jerusalem Post. It needs to be said for the sake of fairness that Turkey’s military-intelligence establishment, too, is very wary of Israel forging a buffer zone in Syria beyond Golan Heights, which may be used by anti-Turkey terror groups to stage cross-border attacks.
The initial relief within Israel’s defense establishment following the fall of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of Iranian forces in the area has given way to concern over the rise of a Sunni branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, antagonistic toward Israel and backed by Qatar and Turkey.
This would carry significant implications. First and foremost, if Turkey decides to arm the rebel forces, it is unclear how Israel will respond and whether it will be able to thwart the transfer of American weapons.
The security establishment sees potential hope in President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming administration, given the strained relationship between Trump and Erdogan. In recent years, there have even been calls to remove Turkey from NATO.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan identified the vacuum created in the region early in the Russia-Ukraine War and is attempting to position himself as the “new Putin.”
He is advancing the construction of a gas pipeline in cooperation with Azerbaijan at the expense of Russia and Iran, increasing aviation traffic through Turkey, and perhaps most significantly for him, seizing Syrian territory, defeating the Kurds in the area, and influencing Syria’s future regime.
All this is happening while his country’s economy is collapsing.
According to Western assessments, Erdogan is expected to defeat the Kurds in the coming days, as the Biden administration is not anticipated to intervene. Turkey is also likely to seize control points that will create a buffer zone for itself.
IDF deployed in the area
According to sources in the Northern Command, the rebels have begun operating in villages in the Syrian Golan Heights, aiming to take control of areas vacated by Assad regime forces and to challenge the IDF.
The IDF has strengthened its presence in the buffer zone on Syrian territory. According to sources in the Northern Command, the IDF will remain in Syrian territory until further notice.
Based on current directives, the IDF is preparing to spend the winter in Syrian territory, which includes transferring special equipment, establishing outposts, and creating alternative routes that bypass villages.
This is being done while preparing for potential extreme scenarios involving rebels or other armed forces in the area. The IDF views the buffer zone being established in Syrian territory as a protective belt for the border and nearby Israeli communities.
ANALYSIS:
Erdogan and Netanyahu have successfully instilled the hatred of the other in their respective nations, so much so that now military strategy encompasses a war. This is absolutely silly given the distances and almost equal military capacities. Moreover, there is a huge potential for bi-lateral trade investment and tourism, not the mention the prospect of a NG pipeline to sell Israeli and Egyptian gas in Europe through Turkey’s extensive grid.
PA Turkey editors speculate that the mutual antagonism will ratchet up until there is a peace agreement in Gaza AND Syria has a functioning government which can effectively police its entire territory. Yet, the prospect of armed clashes between Turkey and Israel, or measures that may hurt one or the other nation is virtually nil.
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