KONDA Survey: Household Inflation Perception in Türkiye Drops to 95%

A recent KONDA Research survey on inflation expectations has revealed that while Turkish households perceive annual inflation at 95% as of January 2025, their 12-month forward expectation stands slightly higher at 97%. The survey also highlights how economic confidence and income levels significantly shape inflation expectations among citizens.

Inflation Perception and Expectations

Compared to the previous month—when inflation perception was 105% and future expectations were 99%—the latest figures indicate a moderation in past inflation assessments. This marks the first time since June 2024 that inflation perception has dropped below forward expectations, suggesting either increased optimism about past price trends or a stabilization of inflation concerns.

Economic Confidence and Inflation Outlook

The survey underscores a strong correlation between political confidence and inflation expectations:

  • Respondents who rated President Erdoğan’s economic management as “poor” or “very poor” anticipate inflation at 108% over the next year.
  • In contrast, those who rated his performance “good” or “very good” expect inflation at 79%.

A similar pattern emerges when considering overall governance:

  • The 12-month inflation expectation among those who view Erdoğan’s administration negatively is 108%, compared to 79% for those who view it positively.

Minimum Wage Increase and Public Sentiment

Public opinion on the government’s minimum wage hike also reveals contrasting inflation expectations:

  • Those who found the wage adjustment “appropriate” expect inflation at 67%.
  • Those who disapproved of the increase anticipate a 99% rise in prices.

Notably, even among those who approved the wage hike, the expected inflation rate remains significantly above official wage increase levels, indicating a persistent expectation of price hikes.

Income Levels and Inflation Expectations

Financial well-being also plays a key role in shaping inflation forecasts:

  • Those who reported being able to save money last month expect inflation at 86%.
  • Meanwhile, those who struggled financially and went into debt foresee inflation surging to 113%.

These findings reinforce how economic hardship amplifies inflation fears, highlighting income disparity as a major factor influencing public perception.

Future Expectations

KONDA’s January 2025 survey paints a complex picture of inflation sentiment in Türkiye. While inflation perception has moderated, future expectations remain high across all demographics. The data suggests that political confidence, financial security, and wage policies continue to be key determinants of economic outlook among Turkish households.

 

 

 

 

Source: karar.com

Translation: Cem Cetinguc