Policy rate would be kept stable in September but to be cut by 100bps in next 3 months, according to the CBRT’s Survey of Market Participants.
According to the CBRT’s Survey of Market Participants for September 2021,
- Policy rate (19%) would be kept stable in this month, but to be cut by 100bps in next 3 months. The next MPC meeting would be held on September 23.
- CPI expectations continued to deteriorate for all terms. Year-end CPI expectation reached to 16.74%, up by 44bps MoM and expectations for 12-month ahead increased by 46bps to 12.94. Additionally, expectations for 24-month ahead continued to stay at double-digit levels for the fourth consecutive month by 10.71%, up by 19bps. Also, expectations for 5-year ahead continued to deteriorate for the 8th month in a row with 7.85%, up by 21bps.
- Expectations of USDTRY currency for the year-end decreased by 0.3% to TL8.92 whereas 12-month ahead increased by 2% to TL 9.56.
- Economic growth expectation of 2021 increased from 6% to 8.2% and the next year’s expected growth rate increased from 4% to 4.2%.
- Expectations of 12-month current account deficit of 2021 decreased from USD23.5bn to USD22.4bn whereas next year’s expectations increased from USD21.2bn to USD21.3bn.
MoM expectation of September was slightly over the historical averages whereas MoM expectations for October and November were below of historical averages (2003-2019
Median – Sep.: +1% Oct.: +1.9% Nov.: +1.1%).
YoY CPI figures could remain around 19% before dropping to 17.3% in November.
CPI expectations continued to deteriorate for all terms. Year-end CPI expectation reached to 16.74%, up by 44bps MoM.
According to the probability distributions of inflation expectaions, YoY CPI is expected
to be at double-digit levels with a 95.5% of probability in the coming 12-months while that probability hit 67.9% for 24-month ahead.
According to the probability distributions of inflation expectaions, YoY CPI is expected to be at double-digit levels with a 95.5% of probability in the coming 12-months while that probability hit 67.9% for 24-month ahead.
Also, expectations for 5-year ahead continued to deteriorate for the 8th month in a row with 7.85%, up by 21bps.
BIST o/n repo rate is expected to be at 19% at the end of the month.
Policy rate (19%) would be kept stable at 19% in this month but to be cut by 100bps in next 3 months.
Economic growth expectation of 2021 increased from 6% to 8.2% while next year’s expected growth increased from 4% to 4.2%.
Expectations of 12-month current account deficit of 2021 decreased from USD23.5bn to USD22.4bn whereas next year’s expectations increased from USD21.2bn to USD21.3bn.
Expectations of USDTRY level seemed stable in September.
Expectations of USDTRY currency for the year-end decreased by 0.3% to TL8.92 and 12-month ahead increased by 2% to TL 9.56.
Source: Y. F. Securities Research