Macro Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2021

Consumption confidence gave a rebound signal from the short-term bottom.

Despite the ongoing deterioration in the financial situation of the last 1 year; expectations seemed optimistic.

Only the assessment of spending on semi-durables was over the critical value of 100 which indicates the positive expectations.

15 of 18 sub-indices recorded monthly increases.

A strong climb in the probability of borrowing money for the consumption expenditures deserved attention.

Since borrowing money might have a positive effect on consumption expenditures, the increase in the probability of borrowing money index indicates an optimistic outlook while a decrease in the index indicates a pessimistic Outlook.

Assessments on the upward trend on the consumer prices have continued to keep its momentum whereas recovery on the saving time condition at present started to lose steam.

The increase in assessment on consumer prices changes rate index indicates a decreased assessment in consumer prices, decrease in the index indicates an increased assessment in consumer prices.

The upward trend on the inflation expectations started to lose momentum while the expectations on employment, wage, and general economic conditions have begun to recover.

The increase in the number of people unemployed expectation index indicates a decrease in the number of people unemployed expectation, whereas a decrease indicates an increase in the number of people unemployed expectation.

The increase in expectation for consumer prices changes rate index indicates a decrease expectation in consumer prices, the decrease in the index indicates an increasing expectation in consumer prices.

Assessment on spending on semi- durables continued to recover, but the upward trend on spending on durables halted.

Optimistic tendency continued on all indices related to investment and saving.

 

Source:  Y.F. Securities Research