In January, manufacturing CUR and construction confidence index decreased whereas real sector, service and retail trade confidence indices recorded monthly increases.
Seasonally adjusted (SA) Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) of Manufacturing Sector decreased by 0.4pps MoM to 78% (Prior: +0.8pps, 78.4%).
SA Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by %1.6 to 111.9 (Prior: -1.7%, 110.1).
Sectoral Confidence Indices;
Services Sector Confidence Index increased by 1.2% to 120.2 (Prior: -0.5%, 118.8).
Retail Trade Sector Confidence Index increased by 2.5% to 124.4 (Prior: -0.4%, 121.5).
Construction Sector Confidence Index decreased by 5% to 85.5 (Prior: -3.9%, 90).
RSCI and sectoral confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100). Next data to be announced on February 22.
SA CUR decreased by 0.4pps MoM to 78% in January. (2007-2021 Average: 76%)
In yearly comparison, CUR of durable goods (3rd month in a row) and capital goods (for 2nd time in last 3 months) recorded monthly drops. Upward trend on the YoY change in intermadiate goods reached to 17 th month.
6 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted
positive annual changes. The highest increases were seen on CURs of beverages, wearing apperals and furniture whereas the highest YoY decreases were seen on CURs of computer-electronics, basic metals and motor vehicles.
SA RSCI increased by 1.6% to 111.9 and continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 18 th month in a row. (2007-2021 Average: 113.6).
Only orders index recorded a monthly decrease (2nd month in a row). The sharpest increase was seen on general situation but it continued to stay at the pessimistic area for the 5th month in a row. Investment index recovered after 2 months of decreases.
Optimistic outlook continues. On the other hand, monthly drops in volume of output and export orders indices deserved attention.
Service sector confidence index (120.2) recorded a monthly increase by 1.2% after 2 months of decreases. (2011-2021 average: 97.6)
In January, all indices for the current Outlook recorded monthly increases and all of them continued to stay at the optimistic area. The sharpest monthly increase was
seen in demand.
Only demand index recorded a monthly drop whereas all indices of the Outlook for next 3 months continued to stay at the the optimistic area.
Retail-trade sector confidence index increased by 2.5% MoM to 124.4 and continued to stay above of 100 for the 15 th month in a row (2011-2021 average: 102.6).
Volume of stocks decreased in a faster pace than the rise of business activity and sales.
All expectations remained at optimistic side for the 15 th month in a row. However, all sub-indices recorded sharp monthly drops. The sharpest decrease was seen on
orders to suppliers.
Construction sector confidence index decreased by 5% MoM to 85.5 and continued to stay at the pessimistic area (2011-2021 Average: 80.4).
Building activities continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 3rd month in a row and current order books slightly recovered in monthly basis but continued to stay at the pessimistic area.
Despite the recent monthly drop price expectation index continued to stay above of critical value of 100. However, employment index recorded a sharp drop (2nd month
in a row) in January and declined to pessimistic area after 5 months.
Y. F. Securities Research