In August, manufacturing CUR, RSCI and sectoral confidence indices recorded increases.
- Seasonally adjusted (SA) Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) of Manufacturing Sector increased by 0.4pps MoM to 76.8% (Prior: +0.1pps, 76.4%).
- SA Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI) increased by %0.1 to 112.2 (Prior: +2.1%, 112.1).
- Sectoral Confidence Indices;
- Services Sector Confidence Index increased by 1.2% to 116.1 (Prior: +5.8%, 114.8).
- Retail Trade Sector Confidence Index increased by 0.6% to 110.3 (Prior: +3.7%, 109.6).
- Construction Sector Confidence Index increased by 7.1% to 92.4 (Prior: +4.7%, 86.3).
- RSCI and sectoral confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100).
SA CUR increased for the third consecutive month by 0.4pps 76.8% in August. This was the highest level of last 20 months. In August, 3-month average figure reached to 76.5% (3Q20: 72.7%, 2Q21: 75.9, Historical Average: 76%).
In yearly comparison, all sub- indices recorded increases. The highest YoY increase was seen on non-durable goods CUR.
Unadjusted CUR increased by 0.4pps MoM and 3.8pps YoY to 77.1% which was the highest level since November 2019.
CUR of capital goods reached couldn’t reach pre-pandemic level yet whereas consumption and intermediate goods’ CUR continued to gave a better Outlook.
19 out of 23 sub-sectors of manufacturing sector posted positive annual changes. The highest increases were seen on CURs of wearing apparel, beverages and textiles whereas the highest YoY decreases were seen on CURs of computer-electronics, repair and installment of machinery and electircal equipment.
SA RSCI increased for the third consecutive month by 0.1% to 112.2 and continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 13th month in a row. 3-month average figure was 111.4 in August (3Q20: 103.4, 2Q21: 108.1, Historical Average: 103.4).
Confidence indices can take value between 0 and 200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the indices are above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when they are below 100 (and stable outlook when the indices are equal to 100).
Stocks, investment and general situation indices recorded monthly decreases whereas the orders index increased MoM (this was the third rise consecuitively). Investment and general condition continued to optimistic area while orders and stocks indices remained at the pessimistic area.
Optimistic outlook continues. On the other hand, Outlook for export orders recorded the first monthly drop after 3 months.
Service sector confidence index recorded 3rd monthly increase (+1.4%) in a row and reached the historical high level (116.1). Also, service sector confidence index continued to stay at the optimistic area for the 8th consecutive months.
In August, demand and business situation indices continued to increase for the third month in a row whereas employment index regressed for the first time since May 2021. Nonetheless, all three current Outlook indices continued to stay above of the critical value of 100.
Despite all three indices on the Outlook continued to remain above the optimistic area since November 2020, they recorded simultaneous monthly drops for the first time since December 2020.
As of July 2021, 62% of the firms in the services sector said there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, other factors (20.1%), insufficient demand (18.2%) and financial constraints (13.1%) were shown as the main factors limiting activities.
In August, a 57,1% of the firms in services sector said that they could increase their activities by 18% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current
resources.
Retail-trade sector confidence recorded the third monthly increase (+0.7%) in a row and continued to stay above of 100 (110.3) for the 10th month in a row.
Volume of stocks increased in a slower pace than the rise of business activity and sales.
All expectations remained at optimistic side for the 10th month in a row. Only expectations on orders to suppliers recorded a monthly increase. Sharp monthly drop (- 5.7%) on the Outlook for sales deserved attention.
As of July 2021, 62.7% of firms in the retail trade sector said there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, insufficient demand (18.4%), other factors (17.9%) and financial constraints (11.3%) were shown as the main factors limiting activities.
In August, a 66,7% of the firms in retail trade sector said that they could increase their activities by 16% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current resources.
Despite construction sector confidence index (92.4) continued to recover (+6.1%) for the fourth month in a row, continued to stay at the pessimistic area.
Current order books and building activity recorded simultaneous rises for the second consecutive month whereas both indices continued to remain at the pessimistic area.
Employment expectation index reached to optimistic area for the first time since December 2020 whereas prices expectation index continued to stay above the critical
value of 100 for the 15th month
In August, 52.6% of the firms in the construction sector said there was no factor which limit activitites. On the other hand, financial constraints (30.5%), insufficient demand
(24.6%) and other factors (21%) were shown as the main factors limiting activities.
In June, a 52,4% of the firms in construction sector said that they could increase their activities by 19,8% in the case of increased demand without any change in their current resources.
Source: Y.F. Securities Research